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Showing posts from December, 2015

The Political Consultant Racket and other news and views

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The Political Consultant Racket  - Consultants want their clients to win, but they also need their businesses to survive. Despite mounting evidence that the effects of TV on the electorate can be uncertain and often short-lived , television remains the single largest expenditure in most campaigns because candidates think they need it to win — and because it is the most reliable source of revenue and the most lucrative part of the consulting business. The economic incentives of the consulting industry are driving up the cost of campaigns. ... In some ways, consultants are like the microscopic bugs in our gut that help us metabolize food: Consultants help candidates and campaigns metabolize money, but their work leaves the body politic hungry for more. The result is a system of big money donors, expensive campaigns and incessant political ads. Free speech is not really free. Money talks in American politics, and the political consulting industry is the main beneficiary — no matter whic

Ronald Reagan remembered: “It’s true that hard work never killed anybody, but why take a chance?”

Can Trump’s Clinton Sex Scandal Revival Hurt Hillary?  - This week Donald Trump pulled off yet another remarkable political feat: while several of his rivals have tried and failed to turn Bill Clinton's decades-old sex scandals into a 2016 campaign issue, Trump is actually making it happen. Unhappy Political Families: Why Europe's Mainstream Parties are Faltering  - Populist insurgencies threaten establishment politics in France, Spain, and even Germany. U.S. Ambassador to Thailand Investigated for Lèse Majesté  - Last week, in a move that was shocking despite the cooling U.S.-Thailand relationship, the Thai government announced that the U.S. ambassador in Bangkok, Glyn Davies, was being investigated on suspicion of having insulted King Bhumibhol Adulyadej. Ambassador Davies had spoken to the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand in late November. During his talk, according to the New York Times , Davies criticized the “long prison sentences handed to some of those foun

The north pole gets a heat wave while it's an honourable mention for Laura Tingle in other news and views

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Worst word or phrase of 2015 announced by Plain English Foundation Worst euphemism of the year : We've heard many euphemisms for fibbing over the years. "Over-firm denial" might just be our new favourite. The UK's Tory party chairman was found to have worked a second job under another name when he was a serving MP. When asked why he had previously denied this, he admitted that his denials were "overly-firmly" stated. Mixed metaphor of the year:  An honourable mention goes to Laura Tingle of the Australian Financial Review: The high moral ground has become such a tiny wedge in the ocean for the government to stand on. The Best Worst Quotes of 2015  - The top 20 bloviations, lies, and just plain dumb lines from U.S. government officials and politicians this year. No. 9: Gen. Lloyd Austin, commander of Central Command: “I don’t currently know the specific goals and objectives of the Saudi campaign [in Yemen], and I would have to know that to be able t

Will the polls that were so wrong on the UK election get the referendum on Europe right or wrong?

Will pollsters redeem themselves in 2016?  - In the event, the final 2015 election campaign polls from nine polling companies resulted in three giving Labour leads, three offering a dead heat and three suggesting Conservative leads - two registering one-point leads and the other a lead of three points - far below the eventual seven-point gap. ... Polling on the forthcoming European referendum is alive and kicking; and the seeming neck-and-neck support for "Remain" and "Leave" that emerged in December will do little to discourage the commissioning of further polls on the subject. How the polls perform in predicting the result of that referendum, following the scale of their failure in the general election, will be of great significance. ISIS Influence on Web Prompts Second Thoughts on First Amendment  - It is one of the most hallowed precepts in modern constitutional law: Freedom of speech may not be curbed unless it poses a “clear and present danger” — an actua

Submarines under threat from underwater drones and other news and views

Trident: Nuclear deterrent under threat from underwater drones, expert warns - Advances in technology may turn Britain’s £31bn nuclear submarine programme into an expensive liability. ... Rapid advances in underwater drone technology – autonomous underwater vehicles that can be controlled by ship- or land- based operators – threaten to make the controversial Trident nuclear submarines vulnerable, according to Paul Ingram, the chief executive of the British American Security Information Council ( Basic). Candidates’ Children in the Peanut Gallery  - Presidential candidates’ children and grandchildren are turning up once again. Ted Cruz’s decision to cast his daughters in an attack ad and Hillary Clinton’s “just like your abuela” misfire make one wonder anew, Why do candidates seek advantage by shoving the next generations center stage while insisting that they remain politically off limits? Paris summit failed, so Alaska must look out for itself on climate change  - There is both g

What is it about the right as they turn on their own?

It clearly not just an Australian phenomenon. Just as Tony Abbott's mates keep sniping at Malcolm Turnbull for being too moderate, so too are American hard-liners attacking the new Republican House of Representative Speaker Paul Ryan. Fury of the right falls on Ryan | TheHill : Outside the Beltway, the right is livid with new Speaker Paul Ryan’s trillion-dollar spending deal with Democrats. Conservative pundit Ann Coulter says Ryan, just seven weeks on the job, is ripe for a primary challenge. “Paul Ryan Betrays America,” blared a headline on the conservative site Breibart.com. And Twitter is littered with references to the Wisconsin Republican’s new “Muslim beard.” 'via Blog this'

An America moving left and other news and views

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Why America Is Moving Left - Republicans may have a lock on Congress and the nation’s statehouses—and could well win the presidency—but the liberal era ushered in by Barack Obama is only just beginning. Why the Movie ‘Concussion’ Spells Trouble for the NFL—and Moral Angst for the Rest of Us  We deserve to know, and we are obligated to know, the cost of America’s love for football. -  Concussion is the true tale of Dr. Bennet Omalu—brilliantly played by Will Smith—and his effort to get the National Football League to acknowledge the existence of the brain disease he discovered, Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy. Dr. Omalu first identified the football-related brain disease in examining the brain of Hall of Fame Pittsburgh Steeler Mike Webster, who died at age 50 in 2002. Webster’s mind was so deeply damaged that he was living in a van, using Super Glue to keep his rotting teeth in place and tasing himself as a method of handling the pain. A still from a video released by ISIS mil

The need for referendums on moral questions

It was many years ago, when I was employed as a lobbyist by a Country Liberal Party Northern Territory government, that I suggested to euthanasia advocates that they change the nature of their campaigning from trying to get state parliaments to legalise it to urging politicians to hold referendums on the issue. History shows that I did not get very far but maybe things will change if the same-sex marriage plebiscite is ever held and the vote is in favour as I expect it will be. MPs hate having to vote on moral issues because they know opponents of change are more likely to change their vote on a single issue than supporters are. Whatever the members might think on the issue, keeping their job is deemed more important. Which is something that perhaps is becoming more understood. Openly gay Liberal senator Dean Smith questions precedent same-sex marriage public vote sets - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) : "The Liberal Party's first openly gay federal parliame

Free at last - A happy orangutan story from the Jakarta Post

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Click to enlarge Page one news 20 December 2015

A game show about integrity and other news and views

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'American Idol' Can't Compete With Liberia's 'Integrity Idol'  - She was one of the five finalists in an American Idol-style competition. But she did not have to sing. This was Integrity Idol 2015 in Liberia. The candidates all worked for the government and had a record of integrity. The public voted by phone and by the Internet. The winner, announced this week, was Jugbeh Taplar Kekula. She's a registered nurse who works nights in the emergency room at the Liberia Government Hospital in Buchanan, the third-largest city in the country, and also educates people about family planning through Planned Parenthood of Liberia. ... It {the program] was the brainchild of Blair Glencourse, who runs Accountability Lab , a nonprofit group that fights corruption. "We thought, 'What about some kind of TV show calledIntegrity Idol where people would vote for honest government officials instead of pop stars?" he recalls. The goal is to recognize people

Temperatures rising

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The world is well and truly on the way to its warmest calendar year for centuries. Below is a graph of temperatures for the 12 months ended November for recent years. It certainly looks like a warming world to me.

Are interest rates now at the old low normal and other news and views

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(Click to enlarge) Why Very Low Interest Rates May Stick Around  - Investors have often talked about the global economy since the crisis as reflecting a “new normal” of slow growth and low inflation. But, just maybe, we have really returned to the old normal. Very low rates have often persisted for decades upon decades, pretty much whenever inflation is quiescent, as it is now. Climate Deal Is Signal to Industry: The Era of Carbon Reduction Is Here  - If nothing else, analysts and experts say, the accord is a signal to businesses and investors that the era of carbon reduction has arrived. It will spur banks and investment funds to shift their loan and stock portfolios from coal and oil to the growing industries of renewable energy like wind and solar. Utilities themselves will have to reduce their reliance on coal and more aggressively adopt renewable sources of energy. Energy and technology companies will be pushed to make breakthroughs to make better and cheaper batteries

Treasurer Scott Morrison's drive back to surplus.with apologies to National Lampoon's Vacation

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'Are we there yet, are we there yet?': Treasurer Scott Morrison compares the drive back to surplus to a family holiday despite budget deficit of $37.4 billion On Nine News: "There may be some delays with road works or things like this and there'll be plenty of people on the back seat, which often happens when I'm driving away, saying 'Are we there yet, are we there yet'." Is this the appropriate video? You've just got to love scomo the backslider's myofo economic analogy of him driving the family car and keeping the family safe. For those of you interested in the back slider reference: Brethren, Scott Morrison has informed national TV he can no longer attend Hillsong simply because of the tyranny of distance. Any other suggestions are purely mischievous. So there you are! http://www.jesus-is-savior. com/Books,%20Tracts%20&% 20Preaching/Printed%20Books/ Dr%20John%20Rice/Backslider/ bs_01.htm

A tale of two polls: a whopping big lead or a modest one

The deficit blows out to record levels and the party that promised us balanced budgets increases its lead in the opinion polls. Such is the meaningless way of politics. Though with those polls it is a case of paying your money and taking your choice between a whopping big lead and a modest one. First up Morgan . L-NP increases lead over ALP – now 57.5% cf. 42.5%; biggest lead for Coalition since being elected in 2013. Then Essential. Liberal National 52% Labor 48% And both of them claiming to measure what the Australian public thinks. What a nonsense all of them are.

A song for Ian Macfarlane

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You have got to love a good conspiracy theory - Trump a Democratic secret agent?

Is Donald Trump a Democratic secret agent? - BBC News : "Republican leaders are currently thrashing about - holding secret meetings, issuing confidential memos and making public denunciations - as they approach a state of near panic over what Donald Trump is doing to their party. It's enough to make some believe that Mr Trump may not have the Republican establishment's best interests at heart. Could Donald Trump be a secret double-agent, sent by Democrats to destroy their party from within? Former Florida governor Jeb Bush, who has borne the brunt of more than a few Trump barbs, seems to think there's a possibility. "Maybe Donald negotiated a deal with his buddy Hillary Clinton," Mr Bush tweeted this week, after Mr Trump cited a poll showing his supporters would stick with him if he left the Republican Party. "Continuing this path will put her in the White House."" 'via Blog this'

A new target for Newscorp columnists? Adding Google to the Fairfax and ABC list?

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It's only a matter of time. Get ready for Google to be added to the list of biased lefties when it comes to reporting politics. The US website Slate on 1 December analysed search results and found "Google is not fair; it favors some candidates, and it opposes others. And so far, it seems to prefer Democrats." Slate's article Why Google Search Results Favor Democrats   says its crowdsourced analysis of Google search results on Dec. 1 for the names of 16 presidential candidates revealed that Democrats fared better than Republicans when it came to supportive and positive sites within the first page of results. Democrats had, on average, seven favorable search results in those top 10, whereas GOP candidates had only 5.9. Our data was collected by automatically gathering nonpersonalized search results from Google for each candidate’s full name, focusing on the top 10 result links and excluding advertisements. The first page of results is important because that’s where

What food should we call healthy?

Why you can’t call nuts, avocados, olives, or salmon “healthy” - The Washington Post : "Earlier this year, the FDA sent the maker of Kind Bars a stern message. The company, which sells granola bars, among other things, was using the the word "healthy" on its packaging. And that wasn't going to fly. "The labels of the aforementioned products bear the claim 'Healthy and tasty, convenient and wholesome,'" the warning, which is available online, said. "However, none of your products listed above meet the requirements for use of the nutrient content claim 'healthy.'" Specifically, the government was talking about the company's Fruit & Nut Almond & Apricot, Fruit & Nut Almond & Coconut, Plus Peanut Butter Dark Chocolate + Protein, and Fruit & Nut Dark Chocolate Cherry Cashew bars, which, it said, would be removed from stores if the packaging wasn't changed. The bars, which are essentially just nuts and frui

Preparing for a warmer Australia

As Andrew Bolt is fond of reminding us, actions by Australia to reduce carbon emissions have little impact in the overall scheme of things. What happens to the world's temperature will depend on global responses of which ours are but a small part. I thought Ziggy Switkowski writing in The Australian  this morning put it well: it’s worth remembering that the futures of our coral reefs, coastlines, rainfall and drought patterns, and weather have little to do with Australia’s climate change strategy except, long term, where it helps discover globally useful enabling technologies or contributes to an international effort that is supported by the major emitters. What is within the control of our government is taking steps to prepare for the warmer times ahead when with average temperatures one degree higher "Sydney may feel a bit more like Brisbane is today, or Beirut; Melbourne like a blend of Sydney, Adelaide and Rome." ... federal, state and local government attentio

The media bored with the Paris climate talks?

As part of my daily reading I look at the front pages of 80 or so newspapers from around the world. With the Paris climate change talks reaching their finale I thought that today there might be some coverage. And what did I find? Only two of them had the climate change talks on page one. And both of them were Indian. The Hindu - Paris climate draft goes into final round Times of India - New draft in Paris but little progress Make of that what you will

Wasting our money on teaching coding?

For our politicians coding  is a new buzz word. Malcolm and Bill are both out their spruiking it as they promise to make a cleverer and richer Australia. Millions will be spent on this search for innovative excellence. Education expands again. And for what? An old non-coder like me would not have a clue but I was taken with this comment in a book review I stumbled across this afternoon: Geoff Colvin, a senior editor at Fortune magazine, also looks for hope in the softer side of human nature. In Humans are Underrated, he makes the case that there is no point trying to beat machines at their own game. Computers may not actually think, but they do a very good job of using massive number-crunching to emulate our cognitive functions. Any job that relies on applying the grey matter is in jeopardy. The irony here is that the spread of IT has brought huge demand for analytical skills. In education, science and technology are all the rage. These, though, are the very jobs that machines are

A fair commentary on the Grand Mufti - and in the Sydney Tele no less

A balanced view on the Grand Mufti. Because it's behind the paywall here are some extracts of what Zushan Hashmi, a research co-ordinator of the South Asia Study Group at the University of Sydney, had to say/ We need many voices not just Grand Mufti’s In Australia critics are slamming the Muslim community for ‘‘not doing enough to condemn the Paris attacks’’. The problem does not lie with the Muslim community itself. Rather, it exists within their leadership and those who are upholding this leadership. Hence, my concerns are regarding the Muslim community leaders, and in particular the so-called Grand Mufti of Australia Ibrahim Abu Mohamed. He is the highest authority and most important representative for Muslims in this country. It is not surprising that he is under scrutiny from politicians such as Josh Frydenberg, who accuses him of failing to provide sound leadership. Although others such as Labor MP Tony Burke have spoken out to support him, as a Muslim I cannot help but

Some risks in Turnbull's benign view of business failure

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Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra Malcolm Turnbull spruiks his lines like one of those optimistic entrepreneurs that he urges Australians to become. The positive tone of the message is the first step to eliciting a favourable response for the content. Thus it was with Monday’s innovation statement and Turnbull’s news conference launching it. Turnbull’s exhortation – that Australians should be more willing to take business risks and less fearful of failure – is an attempt to promote a major cultural change in the community. This drive to transform thinking is arguably of greater significance than the particular measures that were announced. But the often-compelling nature of Turnbull’s presentation can discourage forensic examination of what he’s actually saying, and its implications. He is a man who doesn’t blush at his own hyperbole – as in this Monday observation: If you start a new venture, a new business and it goes well for a while and then, for whatever reaso

Introducing a military trained MP

Ellen Whinnett in the Herald Sun gives an interesting insight into the new member for Canning. From fighting Taliban to Federal Politics, Andrew Hastie was born to serve | HeraldSun : "At just 33, former Captain Andrew William Hastie is one of the most intriguing politicians elected to Australia’s House of Representatives. His years with the Army and as an elite soldier with the SAS give him a unique life experience. A deep thinker who has studied history, politics and philosophy, he wrote a thesis deconstructing Charles Bean’s history of the Anzacs and toyed with becoming a journalist. He is deeply rooted in the Christian faith. He has done two tours of Afghanistan and visited a third time, and spent months in the Middle East with the SAS on a secretive anti-terror mission, which he describes only as “counter-IS operations and intelligence’’. He found his way to Parliament via a bruising by-election that came at the height of the internal war against then-prime minister Tony

The Local Goes Global, As Mayors Talk Climate Change In Paris

The Local Goes Global, As Mayors Talk Climate Change In Paris : NPR : "With nations struggling to agree on how to reduce greenhouse emissions, many cities have stepped in to fill the gap. Some 1,000 mayors from around the world pledged new measures in Paris this week." 'via Blog this'

A problem to come - dementia

By 2017, one in 17 Japanese will have dementia. Here’s how the country plans to cope - Quartz : "Like young children, elderly people with dementia are prone to wandering off and getting lost. Few nations know this like Japan, where last year more than 10,700 people with dementia were reported missing—up by about 460 from the previous year, according to the national police agency. That number is only likely to keep climbing. Japan now has more than 10 million people over the age of 80, and enough women over 100 to fill New York’s Yankee Stadium. One quarter of the country’s residents are already above 65, the working-age population is rapidly shrinking, and the nation’s birth rate fell to a record low last year—as it did in the previous three years. And its life expectancy, meanwhile, remains unusually high." 'via Blog this'

John Howard continues to get the recognition he deserves

How a Conservative-Led Australia Ended Mass Killings - The New York Times : "In the continuing debate over how to stop mass killings in the United States, Australia has become a familiar touchstone. President Obama has cited the country’s gun laws as a model for the United States, calling Australia a nation “like ours.” On the campaign trail, Hillary Clinton has said the Australian approach is “worth considering.” The National Rifle Association, meanwhile, has dismissed the policies, contending that they “robbed Australians of their right to self-defense and empowered criminals” without reducing violent crime. The oft-cited statistic in Australia is a simple one: There have been no mass killings — defined by experts there as a gunman killing five or more people besides himself — since the nation significantly tightened its gun control laws almost 20 years ago.... The tightened laws, which were standardized across Australia, are more stringent than those of any state in the United

How to make a fool of yourself as a political journalist

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The prediction  from the Daily Mirror pundit: Labour was on course to a dismal result ,,, the party's majority ,,, could be cut to less than 1000 in a head-to-head battle with UKIP, And the result: Labour's candidate Jim McMahon secured a 10,722-vote majority from UKIP's John Bickley, and a 62% vote share that was higher than at the general election. The Mirror's Dan Bloom was obviously not given the advice I was as a young journalist playing political  correspondent in Canberra for the first time. "The closer it gets to an event, the less definite should become your opinion" was how the then doyen of the Press Gallery Ian Fitchett warned me. People will laugh at you forever when your prediction is hopelessly wrong but hardly notice and never remember when you get it right. Get ready for the laughter Dan.

Who says our PBS scheme is inefficient?

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Cancer-Drug Prices Vary Widely Even Among Countries With Curbs - Bloomberg Business : "Gemzar costs five times more in New Zealand than in Australia  Study limited by available information on cancer drug prices. Even among countries with curbs on drug prices, the costs of cancer treatments vary widely, researchers wrote in the Lancet Oncology journal. New Zealanders pay almost five times what Australians do for Eli Lilly & Co.’s Gemzar, used to treat breast, lung, pancreatic and ovarian cancers, according to the study of publicly available pricing information from 18 countries. In Germany, Merck & Co.’s Intron A for skin and blood cancers costs triple what it does in Greece, the researchers found." 'via Blog this'

What is it about Victoria: Andrew Bolt's Bill Hartley view

The idea that for a political party there are things more important than winning has a long history in Victoria. It was something of a mantra for Bill Hartley and his socialist left crew. It took a Gough Whitlam to begin the cleansing that saw Labor adopt the view that unless you won office you could do nothing and might as well all stay home. But the idea that purity of principle is paramount lives on down south. Not, these days, among the maddies of the left but on the rabid conservative fringe of the Liberal Party. From the  Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog  this afternoon Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has pushed the Liberal party to the Left. The media cheered, and the have polls [sic, Andrew must have been typing in a hurry] improved - for now. But many Liberals aren’t in politics just to help a Labor-lite party get re-elected. They aren’t there just to make Turnbull Prime Minister. Policies and principles still matter more than victory. 'via Blog this'

Wouldn't it be nice to hear a speech like this in the Australian Parliament

The ignorance of a commentator in The Australian shines through again

A remarkable opinion piece in The Oz this morning by a so-called political scientist Jennifer Oriel. Remarkable for showing the author's ignorance of some basic facts of Australian history. The extracts below give the Oriel flavour. Malcolm Turnbull must take note of the Menzies strategy : Malcolm Turnbull’s inaugural national security address reset Liberal Party philosophy from the neoconservative interventionism of Tony Abbott to a classical liberal policy of containment. However, classical liberal faith presupposes a desire for individual enlightenment and civil society — consciously rejected by Islamists, whose collectivist ideology of jihadism threatens life and liberty across the globe. ... Turnbull has acknowledged Robert Menzies’ role in preventing totalitarian ideology at the dawn of World War II by introducing a national security bill. The bill effectively contained the antipodean threat of Nazism, but it is Menzies’ later fight against communism that illuminates