politicalowl

The corporate bookies don't seem to have a market yet on the weekend's major political event but the money at the Portsea Hotel tonight suggests Julie Bushop will be a no-show at the annual polo. The boys at the very upmarket hotel think the Foreign Minister will squib it after the flack this week about charging taxpayers for her appearance money last year. Most of the $1000 put on the bar supporting the "no appearance you Worship" case remained un-taken at closing time. From last year's official video record - having a happy time And there was a penetrating political interview Personally, the Owl reckons the locals have got it wrong. Ms Bishop likes a fashionable day out and is smart enough to have a proper formal meeting in Melbourne on Friday to legitimately cover the airfare from Perth. Stay at the residence of her regular escort and no need to claim any expenses for mixing with the rich and famous at the weekend. Nothing for those kill joy journal...

The opinion polls have the UK election at level pegging. The market has the Conservatives at $1.51 to win the most seats. On Betfair David Cameron is $1.75 to continue as Prime Minister after the election with Labour’ David Milliband at $2.34. To me those odds just don’t make sense. Here is how  The Guardian  assesses what the current polls would produce: (Click to enlarge) Sure the Conservatives by that calculation should be a narrow favourite on the most seats market. But Cameron favourite to continue as PM? Here is how  The Independent  assessed things this morning: Because Labour-held constituencies are smaller than Conservative ones, it is easier for Labour to win most seats. Even though Labour continues to be at risk of heavy losses in Scotland, our latest seat projection puts the party on 293 seats, eighteen ahead of the Conservatives on 275. With Nick Clegg projected to secure just 16 seats, the Prime Minister would be left with too few allies...

Predictions are two a penny when it comes to elections and other public affairs events but I find it concentrates the mind to put my opinions to the test, on the record. Hence my little blog  The political speculator’s diary . Here was my offering just after Campbell Newman called his election. Tuesday, January 6, 2015 A Queensland Opportunity and I’m risking a little on Labor A state election on 31 January – something to put some interest into the silly season for political junkies. And, methinks, an opportunity. I have no inside information but I am puzzled that the bookies have the Queensland LNP Government as short as they are this evening. The pollsters put it at 50:50. I’m starting my betting with 100 units on Labor at the generally available $3.80 With hindsight it’s clear I made one mistake. I should have waited a little longer when the price about Labor blew out to $9.

I am normally a favourite backer when it comes to elections. My experience suggests that the market on elections tends not to get the favoured party in short enough quickly enough. So what am I doing on the US Congressional elections? Breaking my habits of a life time and going for the outsider in the Senate race. The reason for my modest risk taking on the Democrats surviving as the majority party in the Senate comes from a couple of recent articles by Sam Wang on The Princeton Election Consortium website. Midterm National Senate Polling Error Is Five Times Larger Than In Presidential Years  and  Races I’ll be Watching on Election Night   outline what Wang calls “the mid-term polling curse” whereby historically, in any given year, midterm polls have been off in the same direction by a median of 2 or 3 percentage points. Depending on the year, either Democrats or Republicans end up outperforming polls. In current poll medians, six races are within less...