Measuring the success of a commentator

Predictions are two a penny when it comes to elections and other public affairs events but I find it concentrates the mind to put my opinions to the test, on the record. Hence my little blog The political speculator’s diary. Here was my offering just after Campbell Newman called his election.
Tuesday, January 6, 2015

A Queensland Opportunity and I’m risking a little on Labor

A state election on 31 January – something to put some interest into the silly season for political junkies. And, methinks, an opportunity.
I have no inside information but I am puzzled that the bookies have the Queensland LNP Government as short as they are this evening. The pollsters put it at 50:50.
I’m starting my betting with 100 units on Labor at the generally available $3.80
With hindsight it’s clear I made one mistake. I should have waited a little longer when the price about Labor blew out to $9.

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