politicalowl

There's one thng we can say about the Australian Burreau of Meteorology these days. When it comes to anything to do with global warming thry are very cautious forecasters, This week the BOM updated its  ENSO Wrap-Up on the current state of the Pacific and Indian Oceans and noted that all eight of the surveyed international climate models indicate the central Pacific Ocean will warm further during the coming months. That's as strong a pointer as you an get that an El Niño is on the way bringing with it higher than normal world emperatures. (click to enlarge) But there was no exagerrating from the BOM - a body that is well aware of the skepticism of its political masters about such global warmng matters. Just a note that "it is too early to determine with confidence how strong this potential El Niño could be. Model outlooks spanning February to May (the traditional ENSO transition period) have lower confidence than forecasts made at other times of year." So ...

The immediate threat of El Niño onset appears passed for the 2014–15 cycle. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported this week  that since late 2014, most ENSO indicators have eased back from borderline El Niño levels. As the natural seasonal cycle of ENSO is now entering the decay phase, and models indicate a low chance of an immediate return to El Niño levels, neutral conditions are considered the most likely scenario through into autumn. Central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures have fallen by around half a degree from their peak of 1.1 °C above average in late November. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index has weakened to values more consistent with neutral conditions, while recent cloud patterns show little El Niño signature. As all models surveyed by the Bureau favour a continuation of these neutral conditions in the coming months, the immediate threat of El Niño onset appears passed for the 2014–15 cycle. Hence the ENSO Tracker ha...

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has upgraded its assessment of the likelihood of an El Niño to 70% and warmer than normal temperatures are increasingly likely to make this current calendar year the warmest in recent history. In its  ENSO Wrap-Up  of the Current state of the Pacific and Indian Oceans released on Wednesday the BOM said the Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Niño development in recent weeks. Above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed further in the past fortnight, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has generally been in excess of El Niño thresholds for the past three months. Climate models suggest current conditions will either persist or strengthen. These factors mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker Status has been upgraded from WATCH to ALERT level, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring. Not all indicators have shifted towards El Niño. Tropical cloudiness near...

Of the world’s five warmest years on record – 2010, 2005, 1998, 2003, and 2013 – all but 2013 began during a mature El Niño event. Hence the interest always paid to this measure reflecting ocean water temperatures in the Pacific and to the speculation that 2014 might be another record high temperature one when the climate model makers earlier in the year were  putting the chances of an El Niño at 80% . That probability has now retreated a little with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s  latest El Niño watch  being in the neutral range. Somewhat surprisingly the warm temperatures have kept coming without an  El Niño  influence. According to the latest report  of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): The combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces for August 2014 was record high for the month, at 0.75°C (1.35°F) above the 20th century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F), topping...

The odds of an  El Niño developing this year, and with it the chances of an ultra-hot year for the planet, have dropped considerably. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported this afternoon that despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for an El Niño during much of the first half of 2014, the atmosphere above has largely failed to respond. Hence the ocean and atmosphere have not reinforced each other. As a result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with most of the key NINO regions returning to neutral values. While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has clearly eased, warmer-than-average waters persist in parts of the tropical Pacific, and the (slight) majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for spring. Hence the establishment of El Niño before year’s end cannot be ruled out. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event. Given the current observations and the cl...

I watch with great interest the twice a month reports from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) on the the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) because what happens to world temperatures the next time an El Niño occurs will have a major influence on the global warming debate. The evidence seems to suggest that under the influence of El Niño temperatures rise and a new high temperature reading for the world would be a blow to those who argue that global warming has plateaued over the last 15 years or so. Conversely, an El Niño that does not break the plateauing trend line would be manna from heaven for the climate sceptics. Today’s report from the BOM continues to point to an El Niño being likely. Based on the assessment on 1 July 2014, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Tracker status remains at El Niño ALERT level, meaning that there is at least a 70% chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014. Current observations and model guidance indicate an E...

Today’s update from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology  indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to continue warming over the coming months. Most models, reports the Bureau, indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific will be above or close to El Niño thresholds by August, with all but one exceeding the threshold by October. Four models show NINO3.4 values considerably higher than the El Niño threshold by the end of the forecast period. The range in forecast values of NINO3.4 is quite wide when considering individual ensemble members (forecast scenarios) from each model with values ranging between 0.0 °C and +3.0 °C by October. (See the ‘Models’ tab for links to individual model output for NINO3.4). The most recent NINO3.4 value is +0.5 °C for the week ending 11 May 2014. Sustained NINO3.4 values above +0.8 °C indicate El Niño conditions. The following graph shows the average forecast value of  NINO3.4  for each intern...

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology reports today that the tropical Pacific Ocean continues a general trend toward El Niño. Just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño thresholds will be exceeded by August. An El Niño ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2014. The tropical Pacific Ocean surface has warmed steadily since February, with sea surface temperature anomalies increasing by 0.5 to 1.0 °C. For El Niño to be established and maintained, the sea surface needs to warm further, and be accompanied by a persistent weakening of the trade winds and a consistent increase in cloudiness near the Date Line. In the past fortnight, trade winds have generally been near normal, though have weakened once again in recent days.

Further evidence that there will be an El Niño weather even later this year comes from the latest joint report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society. These US bodies have joined Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology in moving  their prediction  to an Alert with the chance that El Niño increases during the remainder of the year now exceeding 65%. Their summary says: The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño compared with those from last month. Most of the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through part of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, most likely transitioning to El Niño during the summer. There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently...

The teams aren’t even in Brazil yet but in England they are already coming up with new reasons for their teams failure. The latest is from researchers at the University of Reading who are blaming the coming El Niño. Saying there is a 60% chance of an El Nino event hitting Brazil, the Reading scientists say the complicated meteorological system is likely to cause extremely dry and sunny weather in June and July. Teams from the British Isles, they say, have traditionally struggled to cope with these types of conditions. “If it does occur, it would increase the risk of uncomfortably hot and dry conditions in Brazil during June and July,” Dr Nick Klingaman told the BBC. Especially in the southern and eastern parts of the country, where England are playing their second and third group games… “If players and coaching staff were hoping for milder and more favourable conditions for their remaining matches, it looks more likely that they could be disappointed,” said Dr K...

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology this week gave us a warning about the immediate future that could severely affect us all. And the politicians and the mainstream media don’t seem to take the slightest notice, The BOM forecast: Tropical Pacific continues to warm; El Niño likely in 2014 Issued on Tuesday 6 May 2014 The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed steadily in recent months, with large warm anomalies in the ocean sub-surface (5-day values up to +6 °C) and increasingly warm sea surface temperatures. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño development is possible as early as July. These factors indicate that while El Niño in 2014 cannot be guaranteed, the likelihood of an event developing remains at least 70% and we are at El Niño ALERT level. ALERT level? And what the heck does that mean? El Niño likely in 2014 The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Tracker status is at El Niño ALERT level, meaning that there is at least a 70% chance of an El Niño oc...

A hotter and drier summer than normal in eastern Australia is looking a little more likely with the Bureau of Meteorology reporting today that the likelihood of El Niño remains high, with all climate models surveyed by the Bureau now indicating El Niño is likely to occur in 2014. Six of the seven models suggest El Niño thresholds may be exceeded as early as July. Says BOM: The Pacific Ocean has been warming along the equator over recent weeks, with continued warming in the central Pacific likely in coming months. Another burst of westerly winds is presently occurring in the western Pacific, and is likely to cause further warming of the sub-surface. El Niño has an impact across much of the world, including below average rainfall in the western Pacific and Indonesian regions, and increased rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific. For Australia, El Niño is usually associated with below average rainfall, with about two thirds of El Niño ev...