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Showing posts from September, 2012

Giving magic mushrooms a try

From the Financial Times of London comes the news that a    groundbreaking clinical trial funded by the British government to treat people with depression using a psychedelic extract of “magic mushrooms” is gearing up to start next year. Past research has suggested that a single exposure to psilocybin could improve psychological health for a year and decrease other symptoms of depression for six months, suggesting it has considerable therapeutic potential for the half of patients for whom antidepressants and cognitive behavioural therapy have little effect.

Rewarding vexatious litigants

Letting the sexual harassment case go to trial would have led to a "lawyers' picnic" that could have extended well into next year the Attorney General informed us as a settlement was announced with  House of Representatives Speaker Peter Slipper's staffer James Ashby. And that, of course, would never do.  The middle of next year would be much too close to election day to risk the Commonwealth Government actually losing. Far better to hand over the $50,000 now and pretend, as Attorney General Nicola Roxon did, that the payment did not mean admitting doing anything wrong.  On the contrary.  Ms Roxon said the government did not resile from its argument "that the claim was vexatious". Better to reward vexatious litigants, apparently, than avaricious lawyers. Unfortunately for a Labor Government anxious to avoid embarrassment in the run up to a polling day there still remains the main event of Mr Ashby's legal action against the Speaker himself. Ms Roxon

The Republican Brain: Constructing an Alternate Polling Reality for 2012 | Mother Jones

Another look at those American presidential election polls where Republicans are refusing (pretending?) to believe what they see in the numbers. The Republican Brain: Constructing an Alternate Polling Reality for 2012 | Mother Jones : 'via Blog this'

A Democrat bias in the polls? Statistically, speaking that's bunk

A further note on those American opinion polls. 'Unskewing' polls with party ID is, statistically speaking, bunk | Harry J Enten | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk: The idea that current polling is 'too Democratic' and needs re-weighting for party identification simply doesn't pass muster. "The mainstream media is skewing its polls with too many Democrats because they want Obama to win." Statements like this one are zipping around the internet a mile a minute these days. The general idea is that there are too many respondents identifying as Democrats in public surveys compared to past elections' exit polls. There's even a website titled unskewedpolls.com that purports to adjust media polls to correct for these errors, based on Rasmussen Reports data. " 'via Blog this'

The misleading average of the opinion polls

When faced with a myriad of opinion polls all showing different results it is natural, I suppose, that people turn to an average of the findings to get a shorthand look at what is actually happening. So it is that the Real Clear Politics site with its RCP Average has gained such a following. But really, does this daily figure help or hinder an understanding of the likely voting intention of Americans at the forthcoming presidential election? On my, admittedly cursory examination, there are grounds for thinking that the RCP average is quite misleading. The reason is simple. Not all pollsters use the same methods. Some are thorough and others are slipshod. They use a range of different measures to weight the findings from their actual interviews to try and make their published figure representative of people likely to vote. As the reliable British site  UK Polling Report  stresses, "by averaging quality polls will ropey ones you don’t get better figures, you just make the better

Troubled about China

I start worrying when in countries with totalitarian governments like China we see demonstrations conducted with apparent government approval. Experience has taught me that there is invariably a reason not connected with what the demonstrators are complaining about. Hence my apprehension about the recent reports out of Beijing about crowds chanting anti-Japan slogans and surrounding  the official car of the United States ambassador. The fear must be that the Chinese rulers think a diversion from the country's economic problems is needed. If that is only half true then troubles are in store for  Australia

Now for something more serious

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My thanks to those readers who took the time to give me their answer to whether they had looked or not at those pictures of the topless princess. I'm somewhat reassured to know that the majority, like me, did not go searching the internet to have a peek but the high proportion who did confirms my view that trying to prohibit things is self defeating. For the record here is the final result from my Australian poll on this question: And from the poll I conducted on the US based newsvine.com site: Now for something more serious. I wonder how many people have actually looked at that video that has  caused such anger within the Muslim community. The form is HERE

Markets and polls

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The longest running market on political events that I am aware of is the Iowa Electronic Markets conducted by faculty at the University of Iowa College of Business as part of its research and teaching mission. Here is an example of why I take notice of them and the others that are now available of the net in predicting outcomes. Click to enlarge

The political speculator's diary: Tempted to back Obama yet again but ...

The political speculator's diary: Tempted to back Obama yet again but ... : "If it wasn't for the cautionary words years ago of the most successful professional punter I know that I always have a tendency to "overbet", I'd be having more on Barack Obama to win this presidential election. To me he is looking more and more like a good thing every day but I do have a considerable proportion of my portfolio on him already. I've got to continually remind myself not to be foolhardy so I'm letting the current 68% or so available from Intrade pass but if you have not already invested on the event now is the time to do so." 'via Blog this'

Peeking progress

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My little survey or my readers on The topless Princess - who has had a peek? currently is as follows:

The political speculator's diary: He who hesitates ...

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My instincts were right last week when I wrote that "the   momentum seems to be in Julia Gillard's favour at the moment for her to lead Labor at the next election." She has since moved on the Crikey Indicator from being a 52% chance of still being in the job come election day to a 57% chance.  A small earning opportunity missed but there will be others especially if the press gallery pundits continue to predict that if there is no push this year to put Kevin Rudd back in the job that it is all over red rover.The currently conventional wisdom is just nonsense as those of us old enough to remember the events of 1983 well recognise. There are still swings and roundabouts to go in this Labor leadership contest. The political speculator's diary: He who hesitates ... : 'via Blog this'

The topless Princess - who has had a peek?

I'm just curious about whether taking legal action to stop publication of something actually helps or hinders. Hence my interest in how many people have actually had a peek on the internet of those pictures of the the topless princess. Do me a favour and fill in my form here.

Acrtic ice receding? Who cares.

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If the judgment of my media peers is any guide I guess I've become a bit of a bore in my regular Crikey column by reporting on what is happening to the ice levels in the Arctic. Very few others seem to think it is a subject even worth mentioning. But somehow I still think that the rapid disappearance of ice cover in the northern hemisphere oceans isd a far more important story to be covering than the latest Australian opinion poll. Here is this morning's map of Arc tic ice cover: It is the lowest by far recorded since satellites first started recording the ice cover. Global warming looks real enough to me.

Duck torture prevalent

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Take a duck to water? Not likely. The only way most of those we eat can drink is from bell drinkers where they can not even duck their heads. Torture is what I would call it. Read the RSPCA's description and make up your own mind.

A sad truth about Muslim violence

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From the BBC website

Market moves Australian Labor's way

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The betting market has interpreted today's confusing opinion polls (see the item Opinion polling nonsense ) as indicating a slight improvement in Labor's chances of retaining government. The last time I calculated the Crikey Election Indicator a week or so ago Labor was rated only a 17% chance of hanging on. Tonight the Indicator puts it at just over 26%. That surprises me somewhat but so too does the lack of market reaction to the chances of Julia Gillard still being Labor Leader at the time of the next election. That Indicator was relatively unmoved by today's polls.

Opinion polling nonsense

Take a look at these and tell me what it means. Two party preferred voting intentions Newspoll - Labor 50% Coalition 50% Nielsen - Labor 47% Coalition 53% Essential Research - Labor 45% Coalition 55% All these results were published today by supposedly reputable pollsters. Pay your money and take your pick.

Stop Muslim migration? Prepare for a boat people invasion

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When you have a neighbouring country with 180 million or so Muslim inhabitants within small boat travelling distance it's common sense not to set out to deliberately antagonise that religion. When the government of Indonesia is struggling to contain the same kind of mindless religious extremism that inflamed the weekend troubles in Sydney then the argument for being careful with your language should be even greater. But not, apparently, if you bill yourself as "Australia's most read columnist." In the Melbourne Herald Sun  this morning Andrew Bolt was in there stirring up the idea that Australia should consider stopping Muslims to emigrate here. Now if you think a group of extremist hot heads preaching hate in Sydney is something to worry about, consider what it would be like for Australia if we offended Indonesian Muslims, moderate and extreme alike, by restricting all Muslim migration as Bolt suggests. For a start we could kiss goodbye all those efforts of our

Reinforcing Gillard's biggest negative

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With all the skill to be expected from an accomplished publicist, Maxine McKew has begun the previews of her forthcoming book about political life and it is the Prime Minister Julia Gillard who should be worried most about what it says. This was the headline in the Sydney Daily Telegraph  this morning: It concentrated largely on Ms Gillard's weakest spot - the extent to which what she says can be believed.  The book, Tales from the Political Trenches  is due in bookshops in November but there will be far more teases about its contents before then.

Tony Wright's view to agree with

The Fairfax National Times  website this morning contains one sensible summary of all the fuss about activities years ago of our current political leaders. Tony Wright writes: The new story about Abbott's assault upon a wall, of course, blends into polls showing he's not popular with voters, particularly women, and the current broader outcry about bullying in the workplace and on social media. He walks with the rolling gait of a colonial boss on a plantation. He's got to be a bully … why, he's been one since he was 20, as the story proves. It does nothing of the sort. If it did, everyone who has ever behaved like spoiled, overexcited and unrestrained jackasses when they were young would have to be judged by the same measure. To do so would be to deny that people are capable of growing up and learning a bit about acceptable behaviour. Julia Gillard has recently confronted old allegations about her behaviour when she was a young lawyer. It all went to the narrativ

The political speculator's diary: Backing Obama

I have unzipped the purse and backed Obama to remain president of the US. See: The political speculator's diary: Backing Obama : 'via Blog this'

When Do We Lie? When We’re Short on Time and Long on Reasons

It's the kind of study to keep in mind when considering whether a politician is telling the truth or not . I n a study forthcoming in  Psychological Science , a journal of the  Association for Psychological Science , psychological scientists Shaul Shalvi of the University of Amsterdam and Ori Eldar and Yoella Bereby-Meyer of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev investigated what factors influence dishonest behavior. In the absence of the article itself being available I can only quote the press statement summary released by the academics for details: Previous research shows that a person’s first instinct is to serve his or her own self-interest. And research also shows that people are more likely to lie when they can justify such lies to themselves. With these findings in mind, Shalvi and colleagues hypothesized that, when under time pressure, having to make a decision that could yield financial reward would make people more likely to lie. They also hypothesized that, when people

Guantanamo Bay - a wonderful place for butterflies

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Don't worry about the inmates at the Guantanamo Bay naval base - concentrate on the butterflies. That's the motto of a team of University of Florida scientists who have discovered a vast diversity of butterflies and moths on the apart of Cuba leased to the United States back in 1903 .According to the researchers  the land has unintentionally become a wildlife refuge, offering them the opportunity to better understand the island’s natural habitats. Located in the southeast corner of Cuba, its unique and complex geological history of volcanic activity, erosion and shifting sea levels resulted in geological deposits closely associated with marine environments. “We are comparing the moths and butterflies collected at GTMO to those recorded from the U.S., Bahamas, other nearby islands and Central America,” said   study co-author Jacqueline Y. Miller, curator of Lepidoptera at the Florida Museum of Natural History’s McGuire Center for Lepidoptera and Biodiversity on the UF campus.

Media not all powerful in politics

The easy re-election victory of Sydney law mayor Clover Moore should give us reassurance that the media is not all powerful in how people vote. The city's biggest selling newspaper, The Daily Telegraph , and the top rating talk radio station 2GB  have been almost hysterically anti-Moore for years. But today's vote has proved that people are quite capable of ignoring tabloid and shock-jock nonsense.

Tony Abbott and she said versus he said

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I find myself feeling quite uneasy about the Abbott as bully story from this morning's Sydney Morning Herald: So there we have what the SMH writer correctly describes as "a hugely damaging allegation" for which there are two completely different versions. One witness says something happened and the other says it didn't. How should an allegation like this one be fairly reported? Should it be reported at all? Perhaps when we have access to the full Quarterly Essay  piece by David Marr there will at least be an attempt to find some corroborative evidence to support Barbara Ramjan's version.

Apec summit: President Hu's pledge on China economic growth

Some hopeful news from the Apec summit. BBC News -  "Chinese President Hu Jintao has promised to maintain economic growth to support a global recovery, at the start of an Asia-Pacific summit in the Russian port city of Vladivostok." 'via Blog this'