Monday, 17 September 2012

Market moves Australian Labor's way

The betting market has interpreted today's confusing opinion polls (see the item Opinion polling nonsense) as indicating a slight improvement in Labor's chances of retaining government. The last time I calculated the Crikey Election Indicator a week or so ago Labor was rated only a 17% chance of hanging on. Tonight the Indicator puts it at just over 26%.
That surprises me somewhat but so too does the lack of market reaction to the chances of Julia Gillard still being Labor Leader at the time of the next election. That Indicator was relatively unmoved by today's polls.

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