Posts

Showing posts from 2004

Blackmailers In the Ranks - a Government with a Senate majority

The conventional wisdom has it that the Howard Government will have an open slather with legislation when the Liberal and National Parties gain control of the Senate on 1 July 2005. In truth the situation will not be so simple. What will happen next year is that blackmailers outside the Coalition will be replaced with blackmailers within it. The power to decide will pass from Democrats, Greens and Independents to any backbench Senator on the Government side disenchanted with the role being a rubber stamp for his or her colleagues fortunate enough to have been tapped on the shoulder by John Howard or John Anderson to become Ministers. The significance of this shift in power form the third forces to backbench Government Senators has been missed by the political commentators because so few of them were around in the days when Reg Wright, the Liberal Senator from Tasmania, was the bete noir of Prime Minister Robert Menzies. Senator Wright, sometimes with his Queensland colleague Senat

Eight out of Nine Ain’t Bad - the Labor brand

There are nine governments in Australia – those of six states, two territories and the federal one. In Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia, Western Australia, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory, Labor rules. For a political brand, eight ninths of the market can’t be bad. Yet since losing the ninth election to John Howard’s Liberal-National coalition, the newspapers and the airwaves have been full of discussions about the need for Labor to undergo radical change. It is like the thinking of that head of Coca Cola who decided that the formula of the most successful soft drink in the world needed to be changed because it had lost a few percentage points of market share. Utter nonsense. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the Labor Party brand. In so far as there is a problem federally it is because the federal party leaders, unlike their state counterparts, have forgotten who they should be trying to sell their product to. In

Another Triumph for the Glug Election Indicator

The Glug Election Indicator performed creditably in picking the United States election result. It had George W. Bush a 56.6% chance of remaining President which translates in to a prediction of a 50.3% national vote for Bush. That was lower than the 51.1% shown by the current actual figures but substantially closer than the 49.4% prediction of Messrs Zogby and co. If you are wondering how a 56.6% chance of winning becomes a predicted vote of 50.3%, we assume a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 1.5 percentage points. That is the standard deviation which the University of Iowa found applied to its Iowa Electronic Markets on political elections. (See  So Who is the Underdog ) in our Election Diary archive. The Glug indicator, incidentally, predicted that the Liberal-National Coalition in Australia was a 77.8% chance of winning. That assumed a two party preferred vote of 51.2%. The final figure was 52.7%.

Another Crushing Defeat for Journalists and the Opinion Poll Industry .

There have been three predictions of cliff hanger election results by political journalists and opinion pollsters in English speaking democracies this year. And three clear cut wins by incumbent governments have made the pollsters and the other pundits look less reliable than astrologers. Consider this wonderful document posted on the web site of Zogby International – the much quoted American polling guru. Released:  November 02, 2004 Our Call Zogby International's 2004 Predictions (as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm EST) 2004 Presidential Election Electoral Votes Bush 213 Kerry 311 Too close to call Nevada (5) Too close to call Colorado (5) Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1% The nationwide telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2 (as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm EST) ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL 901 Broad Street, Utica, New York 13501 USA 1600 K Street, Suite 600, Washington,DC, 20006 USA NY phone 3

2004 Federal Election Diary - Look for Fundamental Change

11th October, 2004    - Richard Farmer   With the wonders of hindsight I can see what an excellent job the Coalition did on the Greens. I should have factored the attacks on radical Green policies into my calculations. Because of them the vote for minor parties went down and down with it went Labor’s chances. The Greens did not even manage to pick up the votes of those who this time deserted the Australian Democrats. Greens and Democrats combined in 2001 totalled 10.4% of the House of Representatives vote. That figure this time was down to 8.1%. The only significant newcomer to the minor party ranks was Family First and their preferences helped replace the losses that the Government side lost from the collapse of One Nation. John Howard now has the opportunity to really put his stamp on the future of Australia. For his first three terms his agenda was hampered by a hostile Senate. From 1 July next year when the Senators elected on Saturday take office the Liberal-National Par

2004 Federal Election Diary - Farewell to the Diary – Where to From Here?

11th October, 2004    - Richard Farmer   As we consign the election diary to Glug’s archives some brief comments by Simon Longstaff of the St James Ethics Centre - (comments chosen because they incorporate my own views) - on what we can expect over the next few months might be appropriate. Mr Longstaff was writing after an election several years ago about the idea of "truth in politics". Does the concept involve an oxymoron? Or, should we give politicians the benefit of the doubt and take them at their word? And if politicians are not to be believed, then what (if anything) does this say about the health of our democracy? I suspect that very few people enjoy telling a deliberate lie. Yet, if history is anything to go by, a reasonable part of what is promised during the campaign will turn out to be impractical (or unpolitic) to deliver. Whoever wins, we might reasonably expect to count the usual list of broken election promises in a few years’ time. This is one reason

2004 Federal Election Diary What to Watch For

9th October, 2004    - Richard Farmer   The best guide early guide as we sit at home tonight watching the television coverage of the election count will be the proportion of the vote gained by the minor parties and independent candidates. If their total vote is only 15% as the major polls predict this morning then John Howard will be staying on as Prime Minister. If the pollsters have underestimated the third party support by five percentage points or more as they have in past elections then the result will be a cliff hanger. On the face of it the two major pollsters tell vastly different stories. In the Age and the Sydney Morning Herald AC Neilsen predicts a two party preferred vote for the Coalition Government of 54% to Labor’s 46%. Such a vote would see Howard returned with a huge majority. Newspoll in The Australian has it 50:50. Actual voting anything like that would make a hung Parliament a real prospect. On first preferences AC Neilsen has the vote for other than the Coa

2004 Federal Election Diary Memories of Jeff Kennett

8th October, 2004    - Richard Farmer   If you are really hoping for a Labor victory tomorrow then give yourself heart by reading the very first entry in this election diary on  1st July, 2004 . It tells the story of this year’s Canadian election. Or think back to the Victorian State election when Jeff Kennett ended up being beaten by the then relatively unknown Steve Bracks. On both of those occasions the pollsters were very, very wrong.

2004 Federal Election Diary John Howard Courts Family First

6th October, 2004    - Richard Farmer   John Howard has his own secret weapon in the second preferences game. The Family First Party, which has come from nowhere to having candidates in more than 100 electorates, will be directing preferences to the Liberal and National Parties. The Prime Minister me with Family First officials this morning and told the press that there was "a broad commonality" of interests between his Coalition and the newcomers. "They are an organisation concerned about the role of the family as I am", he said. Mr Howard’s interest in Family First makes me think that they will be the surprise package in Saturday’s poll. Look for them to poll well.

2004 Federal Election Diary A Call from the PM

7th October, 2004    - Richard Farmer   You know you live in a marginal electorate when you get a call from the Prime Minister soliciting your vote. Well I live in Eden Monaro which has been won by the Party which forms the government at every election since a major boundary reshuffle in 1972. And when the phone rang this morning it was John Howard on the line. After a short pause to allow the recorded message to click in to action, John told me why I should be voting for the Liberal candidate Gary Nairn. And all I could think about was how much this kind of campaigning must be costing. The betting odds and the polls might be saying that the Government is a shoo-in to win on Saturday but no expense is being spared to ensure that is the case. This week I have had a letter from the PM’s mate Senator Bill Heffernan, one from Mr Nairn, an interest rate calculator courtesy of the Liberal Party and an important message about how to vote from the same man who made the phone call. Add

2004 Election diary Pauline Dances On

Image
5th October, 2004  - Richard Farmer The major television appearance of the campaign will be on the 7 network at 7.30 this evening. Pauline Hanson stars in Dancing With the Stars. Her legs are certainly better than Howard’s and Latham’s.

2004 Federal Election Diary The Polling Trap of the Third Party Vote

5th October, 2004    - Richard Farmer   It was Rod Cameron, the distinguished grey haired fellow who keeps bobbing up with words of wisdom on ABC television programs analysing the election, who alerted me to the problem that opinion pollsters have with minor parties. Right back to the days when Roy Morgan was running what was then called the Morgan Gallup Poll in the 1950s and 60s the actual result for the minor parties was higher than the polls predicted. The DLP was the problem party in those days and the first of Australia’s professional pollsters eventually learned to make an adjustment before he his published figures. Rod learned the lesson when he was interpreting his ANOP results for the Labor Party when he was their pollster but the major pollsters these days do not appear to do so. In the last couple of elections the vote for minor parties has been four or five percentage points higher than Newspoll, for example, has predicted. The point of this comment is that there

2004 Federal Election Diary Labor’s Fatal Mistake?

2nd October, 2004    - Richard Farmer   The researcher Hugh Mackay has a fine record as an interpreter of the mood of the Australian people so it is reassuring when his view coincides with your own. I wrote a few days ago (see Delaying the Announcements) that it was a mistake for Labor to have released its policies such a short time before polling day. In today’s Sydney Morning Herald Mr Mackay has advanced the same argument. "That Latham has left it all so late would not be such a problem if he himself were a better-known and better-understood leader" he writes. "But voters need one or the other if they are going to hand the reins to an Opposition: either the leader must be a known quantity or all the key policies - not just one - must be so compelling as to compensate for the unfamiliarity of the leader. This time around, Labor is offering neither." You can read the views of Hugh Mackay in full at the  smh Not that I am yet prepared to take the questio

Election diary 2004 No Longer the Underdog

2nd October, 2004  - Richard Farmer So John Howard is prepared to shake off the under dog tag he has worn since the start of this election campaign. On Channel Nine’s Sunday program this morning when asked about his chances he said: "I think we will make it but it will be pretty close." Not only was there some confidence in those words but in his manner as well. The Prime Minister looked relaxed and every bit like a winner. Not a trace of tension or irritability during what was a very polished performance. He obviously believes, as he said, that the people will put their trust in him "because I have delivered."

Election diary 2004 - Tough and Wily Meets Inexperience

2nd October, 2004  - Richard Farmer Latham on Howard – a tough and wily opponent. Howard on Latham – inexperienced. Four Corners showed the campaign in a nutshell tonight when the two leaders were asked to make a comment about the other. There we had it in less than a minute. The politician we know versus the politician we don’t know. The old dog who didn’t miss the opportunity to attack his opponent’s weakness. The new boy who chose to show a little grudging admiration. All-in-all an interesting look at the campaign by Four Corners although I preferred the more light hearted approach of yesterday’s Sunday program.

2004 Federal Election Diary Russian Aid for Latham

1 October, 2004    - Richard Farmer   The Coalition has had the United States Government as its cheer leader during this campaign with President Bush going out of his way to sing John Howard’s praises. Now the Russians have come to Mark Latham’s aid. By agreeing overnight to sign the Kyoto Protocol, the Russian Government presented the Labor Leader with the opportunity to centre another day’s campaigning on an issue that is favourable to him. I bet Mr Latham cannot believe his luck as he goes about comparing his Green credentials with those of a Prime Minister who has refused to join most of the world community in committing to policies designed to prevent global warming. Interpret This If You Can AC Neilsen’s last poll had the Liberal-National Coalition eight points in front. Newspoll has Labor four points in front. According to Morgan it is a dead heat. I’ll stick with the Glug election Indicator which is based on the odds at Betfair. It shows that over the last few days

2004 Federal Election Diary Voting for Peter Costello

30th September, 2004    - Richard Farmer   Play to your own strengths and your opponent's weaknesses. Mark Latham was doing just that today. The only time he deviated from his script extolling the virtues of his party's Medicare proposals was to raise again the question of the Prime Minister's future. Mr Latham told a radio interviewer that he was a 43 year old in the prime of his life who was in Parliament for the long haul. "I'm giving the Australian people the guarantee (that) Mr Howard won't, that I'll serve a full term," he said. "I'm there for the long haul fight against terrorism, to build up our health and education systems. He's cutting and running into retirement. The biggest risk, the biggest choke, the biggest wobble you get in this campaign is the prospect of Peter Costello smirking his way into the Lodge, because that's what they're setting up on the other side of politics." All the research I saw durin

2004 Federal Election Diary One Gravy Train is Coming to an End

26th September, 2004    - Richard Farmer   Today’s Liberal policy launch marks the end of one political gravy train. From now on Liberal members of the last House of Representatives lose their taxpayer-funded travel and accommodation costs until they are re-elected. The train for Labor MPs does not stop until Wednesday when Mark Latham gives us his version. From Glug

2004 Federal Election Diary My Billions are Different to Your Billions

Image
26th September, 2004    - Richard Farmer   When John Howard announces what the Sydney Tele describes as "$6bn for families" he tells us there is no danger of interest rates being forced up. Yet my weekend footy viewing was continually interrupted by Liberal Party advertisements warning of the danger that Labor spending would force those very same interest rates up. How is a sensible voter to react to that? Forget about reading political stories in the newspapers for the next 14 days and use the mute button on the television during commercial breaks. The best you can do on 9 October is make a choice on the basis of a gut feel about which team will best run the country rather than some serious analysis of respective policies. For the policies mean nothing and that judgment is not based on a belief that all politicians are liars but on the certainty that the Party that wins a majority in the House of Representatives will not actually be in charge. Which bits of t

2004 Federal Election Diary An Insight in to the Minds of Voters

Image
26th September, 2004    - Richard Farmer   Lord Beaverbrook knew how to run a campaign. Keep the message simple and repeat it over and over again. He told the editors of his Daily Express that it was only when they were totally sick and embarrassed about a slogan that it was beginning to get through to the readers. So it is with Mark Latham’s "Ease the Squeeze". The political journalists began wincing after hearing it three or four times but out there in the audience of voters the evidence is that they have hardly heard it at all. In a focus group of swinging voters in the seat of Parramatta organised by the Sydney Morning Herald the campaign catchcry - "ease the squeeze" - was brought up by only one of the 24 voters. The others gave no sign of recognition. The difficulty of getting a message through to ordinary people was the most striking finiding of this attempt by AC Neilsen to duplicate for the SMH the kind of research that is the foundation of

Latham's Second Preference Strategy

Image
Steam rolling Peter Garrett in to the endorsement for a safe seat has certainly improved Mark Latham's chances of becoming Prime Minister and it is not because more people are likely to vote one for Labor. Winning Federal elections these days is not just about maximising the vote of your own party. It's those second preferences that count and, with the Greens likely to be the largest third party, getting their 2's next to a Labor name will be all important. Back in 1975 was the last time that a government secured a majority of votes in its own right and before that it was only Robert Menzies in 1949 and 1951 who gained more than 50%. At the other 19 elections since 1949, votes for minor parties and independents were the determining factors. The importance of those second preferences has increased dramatically as the combined Labor and Liberal/National share of the vote has declined from the high 90% of the early 1950ies to the less than 81% gained in 2001. Fo