Another Triumph for the Glug Election Indicator

The Glug Election Indicator performed creditably in picking the United States election result. It had George W. Bush a 56.6% chance of remaining President which translates in to a prediction of a 50.3% national vote for Bush. That was lower than the 51.1% shown by the current actual figures but substantially closer than the 49.4%prediction of Messrs Zogby and co.
If you are wondering how a 56.6% chance of winning becomes a predicted vote of 50.3%, we assume a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 1.5 percentage points. That is the standard deviation which the University of Iowa found applied to its Iowa Electronic Markets on political elections. (See So Who is the Underdog) in our Election Diary archive.
The Glug indicator, incidentally, predicted that the Liberal-National Coalition in Australia was a 77.8% chance of winning. That assumed a two party preferred vote of 51.2%. The final figure was 52.7%.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Is Scott Morrison getting ahead of Malcolm Turnbull in the GST debate?

Image
Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra Scott Morrison has become a true believer in the cause of raising the GST, determined to drive a major switch in the tax mix. The big question is whether Malcolm Turnbull will end up in the same place as his treasurer. Turnbull is keeping his options open. “Changes to the GST are certainly part of the tax debate and certainly being actively considered by the government,” he said on Friday. If Turnbull agrees with Morrison, all will be well and good between them. On the other hand if Turnbull eventually opts for caution and doesn’t walk down the GST road, or in the shorter term feels Morrison is getting ahead of the game, that would be awkward for the gung-ho minister, who would the need to manage his retreat. Morrison wants a high profile and he seeks the limelight. But that carries risks. There is always that salutary tale from Labor days. Paul Keating was passionate about introducing a broad-based consumption tax. Bob Hawke let
Read more

Prime Minister Scott Morrison under pressure as the question about knowledge of a rape gets embarrassing

Image
Any    day   of   the   week Five words by Scott Morrison that fired up social media commentators today. #NotMyPM pic.twitter.com/YiGTGzLNU5 — M🕯️cr💧ft ...... 🍥 🐒🚶......🧠 (@KaurnaCopia) March 18, 2021 They saw an angry and embarrassed Prime Minister. A politician under considerable pressure. Looking for a way out and not being able to see it. Hansard tells the story of how it came about: Members of Parliament: Staff  Mr ALBANESE (Grayndler—Leader of the Opposition) (14:33): My question is to the Prime Minister. Thirty days ago, the Prime Minister told this House that he asked his former chief of staff, one of the few people he's ever shown empathy for, to verify what his office knew about the reported sexual assault of Brittany Higgins only metres from where he works. Mr Gaetjens reported his findings on the Prime Minister's sports rorts within two weeks. Why is this report, about the Prime Minister's staff, taking so long, and will the Prime Minister release this
Read more

Making a mockery of Labor Party pre-selections

  The shenanigans of the SA branch of the Labor Party just gets worse and worse. The Federal Executive of the Party should intervene to stop this madness. What follows is a post I received this evening from my friend Maggie Dawkins about her daughter Alice's courageous decision to take on the power brokers and seek preselection for the seat of Spence. "Alice innocently exercised her right as an ordinary member of the Labor Party to nominate for Spence. What she may inadvertently have stumbled upon is a done deal agreed to by faceless power brokers of the Left and Right factions. Ordinary members have not been consulted, but it is all leaking out as Alice calls the SA Party office to account. It appears that many members may not be comfortable with this done deal, as they are contacting me, not only as Alice’s mum, but also as a board member of Whistle Blowers Australia. Is the deal correct? Who knows? Perhaps time will tell? We know that some of it is correct, for example, Ni
Read more