Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology takes a low-key approach to a likely El Nino and higher world temperatures

There's one thng we can say about the Australian Burreau of Meteorology these days. When it comes to anything to do with global warming thry are very cautious forecasters,
This week the BOM updated its ENSO Wrap-Up on the current state of the Pacific and Indian Oceans and noted that all eight of the surveyed international climate models indicate the central Pacific Ocean will warm further during the coming months. That's as strong a pointer as you an get that an El Niño is on the way bringing with it higher than normal world emperatures.
(click to enlarge)

But there was no exagerrating from the BOM - a body that is well aware of the skepticism of its political masters about such global warmng matters. Just a note that "it is too early to determine with confidence how strong this potential El Niño could be. Model outlooks spanning February to May (the traditional ENSO transition period) have lower confidence than forecasts made at other times of year."
So the ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT. This means the likelihood of El Niño developing in 2015 is around 70%, which is three times the normal likelihood.


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