politicalowl

Why forecasters failed to predict Trump’s victory : Tim Harford in London's Financial Times "The truth is that once Trump had secured the nomination, a Trump presidency was always a strong possibility. The betting markets seemed to recognise this, offering odds of three-to-one a week or so before the poll. Three-to-one shots happen all the time — or at least, about a quarter of the time. A defeat for Hillary Clinton may be far more consequential than a defeat for Manchester City and, therefore, far more shocking but it shouldn’t be any more surprising. Favourites do not always win." "... we have to keep an open mind that more than one outcome is possible. Too many people equated “Clinton is the favourite” with “Clinton will win”. That’s an obvious error, but it’s common. Even expert forecasters often treat a strong possibility as though it is a certainty. This tendency is one reason that dart-throwing chimps give the experts a run for their money. The chimps make ...

Family comes first. That's one thing we now know about president elect Donald Trump. This report by MSNBC's Rachel Maddow s a bottler as she tells of the Trump son in laws' revenge. Watch it here .

By David Farmer I returned to Tasmania in 1970 after 5 years overseas and was by then very interested in wine. Enough to find out what was happening in Tasmania, so father, who knew everyone set up a meeting with the Department of Agriculture in Launceston. I was told viticulture had no future as it was far too cold but a 'crack-pot' was planting a vineyard at Pipers Brook and the location was worth going to see. I did not meet the 'crack-pot' Andrew Pirie but I did meet his brother David who was propagating vine cuttings. I also went to the La Provence vineyard. So naturally I have followed with great interest the growth of the Tasmanian wine industry. The early to late 1980s were ........... years and over a six year period I led the pack that producers two award winners of the professional class of the Australian Comité Interprofessionnel du Vin de ........... (C.I.V.C.), Chris Shanahan (1983) and Adrian Marsden Smedley (1986). Thus I know a lot abo...

The repressive attack on freedom of speech by Wine Australia has not yet reached the level of stopping wine journalists giving sensible information to consumers. But should a wine maker or retailer dare to quote the words of James Halliday, the country's most famous wine writer, they would face two years in jail. To give you an idea of just how ridiculously draconian Wine Australia's censorship powers are, we reproduce below h ow a recent Halliday column would need to be censored to conform with Wine Australia's law. And if you think you know what the blacked out words are, enter Censored by Wine Australia's competition by sending your guess at what the illegal words are to: richard@politicalowl.com.  There are $50 wine voucher that can be redeemed at glug.com.au for correct and/or witty entries. Click on the column to enlarge it.

They might proudly call it Méthode Tasmanoise but the Hill-Smith family, who purchased Jansz in 1997, seem quite keen to stress a French connection. You will notice, for one thing, that their sparkling is made by the Méthode Tasmanoise rather than the Tasmanian method. But that's a minor dipping of the lid to proper champagne compared with other French references on the Jansz website .  References like this: In 1986, esteemed Champagne house - Louis Roederer partnered with the owners of Heemskerk Wines to produce Tasmania’s first premium vintage sparkling wine. They saw the similarities between the climate here and the famous wine region of their homeland. And this: It could be argued we’re completely mad growing grapes in the wild and unforgivingly cold Tasmanian environment. But there’s méthode to our madness. The climatic conditions of the Jansz vineyard rival the famed French wine region of Champagne. In fact, it was originally with French contribution that Jansz ...

The US entertainment newspaper Variety reports this morning how Rupert Murdoch's Fox Network 16 years ago predicted the election of Donald Trump as President In an unnervingly prescient episode of the iconic Fox show from March 19, 2000, Bart was transported to the future when Donald Trump ’s presidency had just come to an end. In the episode “Bart to the Future” from Season 11 of the show, a Native American oracle gives Bart visions of the future when he is an adult wearing flip flops, a Hawaiian shirt and sporting a pony tail. It turns out that his sister Lisa has become “the first straight female president” who has inherited “quite a budget crunch from President Trump,” and Bart visits her at the White House. Lisa’s aide, Secretary Milhouse Van Houten, explains that Trump has left the country “broke.” Dan Greaney, who wrote the episode, revealed in an interview in March that the episode was meant to be a “warning to America.” “And that just seemed like the logical last stop...

I have not checked the figures but it looks sensible explanation to me. Turns out it's not a Trump insurgency, but a Clinton collapse. A graph that cuts straight through today's punditry ... pic.twitter.com/x41cyyy2XI — Jonathan Webber (@jonathanwebber) November 9, 2016