politicalowl

The Australian Labor Party has struggled in recent federal and state elections to work out how it should treat the threat of Greens candidates snatching their votes in previously safe inner city seats. A vote for a Green risks giving the Liberals extra seats has become a familiar Labor cry without there being much evidence to support such a claim with the electoral system’s preferential voting. An end result of such misguided thinking is for Labor to play preference games in voting for upper houses where a seeming desire to punish Greens for their inner city naughtiness has led to some real opponents of a conservative bent being elected. This phenomenon of a traditional left of centre party having trouble dealing with another leftist party is not uniquely Australian. European socialists have been dealing with it for 20 years with an acceptance of coalition governments making it relatively peaceful. Not so in Britain where the Australian born leader of the Green Party of England ...

If you thought Malcolm Turnbull sounded a lot like Paul Keating when he appeared on Q&A recently then you may well be right. I’m told by what I’ll call “a normally reliable and well informed Sydney friend” that the pair have developed a close friendship. They are regularly, I am told, in each others company as the Liberal leadership pretender gets a tip or two on playing politics from the former Labor prime minister. That someone astute is helping Malcolm Turnbull steer through the difficulties of building his credentials without openly challenging Tony Abbott is apparent. And wasn’t this comment on Q&A pure Keating? “I think firstly you have to set out a vision… describe where you want to go. What’s this all about? What is your goal? You’ve got to explain that. Then you’ve got to explain honestly, not dumbing it down… the problems that we face. What is the problem with the budget? What is the problem with the NBN… Explain it and lay it out factually and then lay out what...

A kind reader – it was nice to find I had one – sent me an interesting paper that gives a bit of context to that “kind of love” reference in my piece earlier this week  Jim and Junie’s kind of love and a lasting relevance for Tom Uren’s words?   The paper  ‘A KIND OF LOVE’: Supergirls, Scapegoatsand Sexual Liberation ,  written in 2011 by Kate Laing, referred to an interview Jim Cairns gave to a journalist from the late and great  Sydney Sun  about his relationship with Junie Morosi: We know we’re being watched all the time. I don’t give a damn what people say. I have stuck by Junie all the way and I intend to keep doing this… I have not changed my opinion about Junie since the day a few months ago when somebody asked me if I was in love with her. I said then it had nothing to do with the love he was talking about. Love is a word that has many meanings. I said- but I was incorrectly quoted- that love ranged from the kind of thin...

I am thankful to Gerard Henderson for including this item in his always entertainingly readable Media Watch Dog . (You can read the rest of the item  HERE ) It brought back such marvellous memories of the Whitlam era and what was described at the time as “a kind of love”. There were pictures like this one: And this one. And somehow, when I see a picture like this one, I can’t stop thinking about those words of Tom.

My award for the most revealing story of 2014 about Tony Abbott would go to Mark Di Stefano with his  The Definitive Ranking Of Every Blue Tie Tony Abbott Wore In 2014 . “Tony Abbott”, wrote Di Stefano, “has stuck to a rigid routine throughout 2014: wake up, put on a suit and saddle up with one of his many blue ties. That’s right, if you haven’t noticed Mr Abbott nearly always wears BLUE ties.” The insistence can be traced back to June last year when then Prime Minister Julia Gillard gave a speech about what would happen if Mr Abbott won the upcoming election: “I invite you to imagine it, a prime minister, a man with a blue tie, who goes on holidays to be replaced by a man in a blue tie, a treasurer who delivers a budget wearing a blue tie, to be supported by a finance minister, another man in a blue tie, women once again banished from the centre of Australia’s political life.” Since that speech, Mr Abbott has worn a blue tie virtually every single day, in what some co...

That’s how Adelaide’s  InDaily  website  began its coverage of this morning’s attempt by the Coalition government to rescue Tony Abbott from his latest captain’s choice. Before the party room vote on a split, the Prime Minister courted South Australian MPs with what one of them, Sean Edwards,  described this way : “I’m very pleased with the decision of the prime minister and when he rang me today with this very good news – it now commits the government to a full and open tender – and this should lead to hat throwing, to punching the air.” Mr Abbott certainly did not move before the vote to qualify the interpretation that the Adelaide  Advertiser  put on the vote:  Prime Minister Tony Abbott promises South Australia chance to tender for Future Submarines project to win leadership votes. But clarification was clearly thought necessary now that day one of good government (or is it day two?) has come around. Defence Minister Kevin Andre...

I have no inside knowledge of any kind about what is happening within the federal Liberal Party. I look at politics from afar without speaking to any members of Parliament. My judgment is based on nothing more than a keen interest in what I read, see and hear of people who do pretend to know what is going on with all this leadership business, And my conclusion is a simple one. If Tony Abbott is correct about being supremely confident that he is not facing a challenge to his party leadership, why does he feel the need to keep asserting that confidence? It does not make sense to me. And if there really is a threat to Abbott’s position, the next Newspoll will have a major impact on what happens. Presumably  The Australian  will have an update on Monday or Tuesday. Given the media coverage over the last fortnight it will be amazing if there is not a considerable drop in the Prime Minister’s personal approval rating and an improvement in Labor’s share of the two party preferred ...

Julie Bishop insists she is not campaigning for Tony Abbott’s job, but the leadership crisis deepened yesterday when another long-time ally of the Prime Minister joined those critical of his judgment. Dennis Shanahan in  The Australian: THE public momentum for a leadership challenge to Tony Abbott is losing pace but the guerilla war continues and could still force a showdown for the prime ministership in Canberra on Tuesday. As more Liberal MPs realise the enormity of trying to remove a first-term leader in a bloody and disorganised fight without a clear replacement, enthusiasm for a spill is waning. A senior cabinet minister told The Australian last night it looked like people were pulling back “from the brink”. Steven Scott in  The Courier Mail: MALCOLM Turnbull is firming as the man most likely to be the nation’s next prime minister – and it could happen as early as next week. With leadership speculation consuming the federal Coalition, some MPs are n...

The Prime Minister’s chief of staff will open proceedings with an inspirational version of : The Prime Minister will conclude the morale boosting with a few verses of:  

A gentle aging is apparently quite alright if you want to continue as a political party power broker. Melbourne financial wheeler and dealer Michael Kroger is seeking to become president of the Victorian branch of the Liberal Party at the age of 57. Yet, as  The Australian  reported this morning, one of his aims if he gets his hands on the title will be a “drive for a series of new, younger candidates to contest safe state and federal seats. Why is it, I regularly wonder, that as the median age of the population gets older, these mature aged “power brokers” continue to be fascinated with attracting youthful parliamentary candidates? Why not a 30 year old party president instead or as well as?

A week and a bit away from Canberra with no newspapers and limited social media and it’s amazing the different perspective you get of political life. From inner Melbourne to the outer suburbs and then Eden on the south coast of New South Wales and barely a mention of government or opposition, Abbott or Shorten. Normally the people I mix with, knowing my obsession with matters political, ask a few polite questions and make a comment or two about the way the country is being governed. But not this summer. With one exception. Moslems. I found that’s the barbecue stopping dirty word for people from a variety of social spheres. Some intolerance I expected. The vehement extent of it in conversations surprised me. The opportunities for unscrupulous politicians from this sentiment are frightening.

The supporters are getting restless. Tony Abbott is disappointing them. The number one cheer leader this morning: These extracts give the flavour: It’s a simple lesson that Mr Abbott has failed to grasp: talking points and three-word slogans can never suffice. “Australia is open for business” does not constitute a narrative or provide inspiration. “Team Australia” has hokey appeal, but it, too, does not work as an explanation for complex national security issues. Limply, the Prime Minister is losing the battle to define core issues and to explain to voters what he is doing and why. At stake is his political credibility, no less. Mr Abbott risks becoming a “oncer” if he allows his opponents to constantly control the agenda. … Other than in some formal set pieces, he has lost his authoritative voice. Of course, it is no use blaming ill-equipped, tyro advisers. The Prime Minister’s Office is too dominated by Peta Credlin, his chief of staff, including on media strategy. ...

Tony Abbott transformed into Julia Gillard the liar. This morning's cartoon in the Melbourne  Herald Sun  says it all . And my guess is that the result will be the same. Ms Gillard did not recover from breaking breaking her no carbon tax in a government I lead promise. The same fate awaits Tony Abbott over the spending cuts for the ABC and SBS.

I am old enough to remember the times when speeches in parliament actually meant something. I even learned shorthand so I could write down and then report what MPs said back in those days because there were no transcripts issued in advance. Reporting what was said was an indication of what was meant, what a member actually believed. Alas, no more. Parliamentary speeches these days are a repetition of prepared and sanitised arguments. Why bother to report such a boring parliamentary debate? So what a delight it was to an old fellow yesterday when the Labor MP for Fremantle, Melissa Parke, actually had the courage to break the shackles of party orthodoxy on the question of military intervention in the Middle East and combating terrorsim at home. Ms PARKE  (Fremantle) (18:24): Last week on Twitter a person called for my execution for treason because I had questioned the government’s rapid escalation of our new involvement in Iraq from a purely humanitarian mission to on...

The Parliament House gossip for weeks now has had Australian Minister for Defence, Senator the Honourable David Johnston, head of the short-list of Cabinet ministers ready for sacking. As someone who avoids the big house on the hill like the plague I can shed no guidance as to the inspiration for the stories but the but the campaign against the Senator certainly got a kick along this morning. Retired Major-General Jim Molan, who was asked to act as the Minister’s adviser on next year’s Defence White Paper, after he helped devise the Government’s border protection policy,  told Channel 10 he quit because he realised it would not be feasible to continue in the role. “The reason for this being not feasible had nothing to do with the professionalism of the Department of Defence, of the [Australian Defence Force], of the chief of the Defence Force or the secretary of the Department,” he said. When it was suggested Mr Molan was narrowing his criticism down to Mr Johnston, he sa...

Prime Minister Tony Abbott is clearly more worried about his standing with the Australian public, and that of his government, than I thought he would be. Flying off to the Netherlands to say a few thank-yous has all the signs of a gesture motivated by panic. The government is clearly stunned at how unpopular it has become since introducing its budget but encouraged by the response to the Prime Minister’s reaction to the deaths of Australians on the Malaysian aircraft shot down over Ukraine. Let’s keep milking that favourable sentiment appears to be the motivation for the hurried decision to fly away. My guess is that the mob will see it as the shallow gesture it undoubtedly is and that there will be no further revival in approval for the way the Prime Minister is performing his job.

I must have spent too much time behind that one way glass. I can’t help thinking when I see a politician on television how those ordinary swinging voters will be reacting. Not to the words coming out of the mouth. They don’t really count. But to the look and the sound of the person uttering them. And if there is one thing this old political adviser is certain of it is that Eric Abetz is doing his team great harm every time he appears on the screen or is heard on the radio. The Minister for Employment is a Liberal disability of the highest order. He just looks and sounds frightening whether or not you agree with his work for the dole message. A guaranteed vote loser who Labor must be hoping is kept in his role as government leader in the Senate where he will be guaranteed frequent appearances as the Abbott team struggles with being a minority administration.

Most voters probably will never know the story of the lost dictaphone machine so the impact on the Victorian political future will be near enough to zilch. Which is a pity really. For the lesson that should be learned is that operatives on both sides of politics are unethical grubs. Anyone interested in honesty in politics would avoid Labor and Liberal like the plague. And when it comes to journalists, they should be despised for their habit of secretly recording conversations in a manner condoned by their editors. A pox on the lot of them. And if you wondering what I’m going on about then read this report from the ABC:  Victorian Labor admits staff destroyed journalist’s recording device after listening to its contents . It is a shameful story.

Stumbling and Mumbling : Why idiots succeed . Prompted by the example of Britain’s recent Cabinet reshuffle one of my favourite bloggers presents eight mechanisms through which, sometimes, organizations and markets can actually favour incompetence. 1. The wet bed. If a man has pissed the bed, you don’t ask someone else to sleep in it. … 2. A disposition effect. … Just as stock market investors tend to hold onto bad stocks, because of their refusal to admit error, so employers hang onto bad staff. 3. Noise vs signal. In many contexts, feedback about performance is noisy. … 4. The devil you know. In many jobs, a worker’s ability can only be assessed after he has done it. … mechanisms 2 and 3 above suggest that the bar for mediocrity might be set so low as to allow idiots to thrive. 5. Survival of the unfittest. Bjorn-Christopher Witte describes how, sometimes, competition between fund managers can encourage reckless risk-taking with the result that lucky chancers rather tha...