politicalowl

The opinion polls pretty much have it 50:50. The Owl Indicator has the Conservatives favourite to win most seats and to provide the Prime Minister.

The voting is over and the market has considered the prospects. Malcolm Turnbull is still the firm favourite to lead the Liberal Party at the next election. And as for who will be the government? Little change on the day.

Take notice of the opinion polls and you would think that the Abbott government is going backwards in public support. Look at the evaluation of the markets and you would find the opposite with a modest increase over the last few weeks in the probability of the Coalition being re-elected. In Victoria the market’s verdict is tending to coincide with the polls with Labor a firming favourite. Check out the Owl’s indicators on other events  HERE .

Thursday, 1st March, 2007    - Richard Farmer   The first betting market on the seat of Bennelong since Maxine McKew entered the field for Labor has John Howard favourite to hold his seat even though the odds on the election result overall continue to point to a Labor victory. The odds at Darwin based Sportingbet.com.au, after taking out the bookmaker’s margin, have a Howard victory in Bennelong a 61% chance with Labor at 35% and any other candidate rated at 4%. For the federal election overall, the Crikey Election Indicator, which now includes odds from Betfair along with Sportingbet, Centrebet and IASBet, has Labor forming government a 51.6% chance to 48.4% for the Coalition. The Crikey Indicator on the NSW State election continues to show Labor as a very probable winner – 84.3% to 15.7% for the Coalition.