politicalowl

The monthly official interest game is upon us. And those bank economists who make a living selling their snake-oil opinions think the Reserve Bank board will cut the official rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2%. Well the market, one those bank economists tend to make, tends to agree with them. Here's The Owl's interest rate indicator: Some how it does not seem right to me. Perhaps an interest rate cut will be necessary but if I was a Reserve Bank board member I would wait see what the government did in its budget before moving. I'll be having a small wager on there being no change tomorrow. See The Political speculator's diary .

The Owl’s election indicator narrowly supports the view that the Reserve Bank board will decide to lower official interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point.

The Owl’s market election indicator cannot pick which way the Reserve Bank board members will vote this afternoon on official interest rates. And my opinion? I am as confused as the rest of the punters.