politicalowl

There are some clear dangers in the campaign by the federal Liberal-National coalition government in trying to politically capitalise on power blackouts in South Australia. The first of them was touched on by the energy regulator when he warned that because of the current heatwave, blackouts are possible in New South Wales this weekend. Should that happen Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's claim that the SA problems are simply the result of socialist Labor commitment to wind and solar power will look like the joke that they are. Far more serious is the likelihood that Labor will get around to making the case that the real problem with power supplies was created by the economic rationalists who introduced the whole market based system. Blaming companies more interested in their own profits than serving the public is a sentiment that will go down well with many people.The SA Premier Jay Weatherill is already going down that populist path with minor party Senator Nick Xenophon not far...

My quick piece of googling research this morning throws this up as the last reference by Andrew Bolt to global temperatures being stable: the biggest controversy right now is the one  even the latest IPCC report had to address: why the world hasn’t warmed  as the climate models predicted. Atmospheric temperatures have remained flat for at least 15 years. Perhaps it is time for him to give us an update.  To my eyes there does not seem to be anything "flat" about this graph.

The Japan Meteorological Agency has released data for  the world's global average surface temperature in December making 2015 temperatures +0.67°C above the 1981-2010 average (+1.05°C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891. Five Warmest Years (Anomalies) 1st. 2015 (+0.67°C), 2nd. 2014 (+0.31°C), 3rd. 2006, 1997 (+0.28°C), 5th. 2003 (+0.25°C) World temperature estimates by other international organisations are expected within the next few days

Worst word or phrase of 2015 announced by Plain English Foundation Worst euphemism of the year : We've heard many euphemisms for fibbing over the years. "Over-firm denial" might just be our new favourite. The UK's Tory party chairman was found to have worked a second job under another name when he was a serving MP. When asked why he had previously denied this, he admitted that his denials were "overly-firmly" stated. Mixed metaphor of the year:  An honourable mention goes to Laura Tingle of the Australian Financial Review: The high moral ground has become such a tiny wedge in the ocean for the government to stand on. The Best Worst Quotes of 2015  - The top 20 bloviations, lies, and just plain dumb lines from U.S. government officials and politicians this year. No. 9: Gen. Lloyd Austin, commander of Central Command: “I don’t currently know the specific goals and objectives of the Saudi campaign [in Yemen], and I would have to know that to be able t...

The world is well and truly on the way to its warmest calendar year for centuries. Below is a graph of temperatures for the 12 months ended November for recent years. It certainly looks like a warming world to me.

As Andrew Bolt is fond of reminding us, actions by Australia to reduce carbon emissions have little impact in the overall scheme of things. What happens to the world's temperature will depend on global responses of which ours are but a small part. I thought Ziggy Switkowski writing in The Australian  this morning put it well: it’s worth remembering that the futures of our coral reefs, coastlines, rainfall and drought patterns, and weather have little to do with Australia’s climate change strategy except, long term, where it helps discover globally useful enabling technologies or contributes to an international effort that is supported by the major emitters. What is within the control of our government is taking steps to prepare for the warmer times ahead when with average temperatures one degree higher "Sydney may feel a bit more like Brisbane is today, or Beirut; Melbourne like a blend of Sydney, Adelaide and Rome." ... federal, state and local government attentio...

(Click to enlarge) The climate change deniers - with Andrew Bolt at the forefront of them - have been arguing for yeas now that global warming has stopped. I wonder, then, what they will make of the latest figures showing record world temperature highs? The graph above sure looks to me like things are getting warmer. Take October for example. It was not merely, as Climate Progress reports , the hottest October — by far — in the 135-year temperature record of NASA. Or the hottest October — by far — in the 125-year temperature record of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). It was the highest anomaly — the highest divergence from the mean temperature — ever recorded in the 1,600-month temperature record of NASA (chart via Stephan Rahmstorf ): (Click to enlarge) I will watch the Bolt Report on Sunday for an explanation.

The Planet Set Three Major Heat Records In August | ThinkProgress : "Like a broken record, we are breaking records for temperature over and over and over again. NOAA’s latest monthly State of the Climate Report reports that the Earth just experienced the hottest August on record, the hottest summer (June to August) on record, and the hottest year to date. And it wasn’t even close. Each of those records was broken by 0.18°F (or more). So, yes, 2015 is going to be the hottest year on record — by far. Last month, climate scientist Jessica Blunden, who works with NOAA, said it’s “99 percent certain that it’s going to be the warmest year on record.” That is crystal clear from this NOAA chart:" Click to enlarge 'via Blog this'

Click to enlarge New Report: March 2015 Easily Set The Record For Hottest March Ever Recorded  - This was easily the hottest March — and hottest January-to-March — on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA’slatest monthly report ... : March 2015 was not only the hottest March in their 135-year of keeping records, it beat “the previous record of 2010 by 0.09°F (0.05°C).” January-to-March was not only the hottest start to any year on record, it also beat “the previous record of 2002 by 0.09°F.” March was so warm that only two other months ever had a higher “departure from average” (i.e. temperature above the norm), February 1998 and January 2007, and they only beat March by “just 0.01°C (0.02°F).” Arctic sea ice hit its smallest March extent since records began in 1979. Last week, NASA also reported this was the hottest three-month start of any year on record. In NASA’s database, though, this was the third warmest March on rec...

Click to enlarge Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has fallen to the lowest recorded level for the winter season, according to US scientists.The maximum this year was 14.5 million sq km, said the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado in Boulder. This is the lowest since 1979, when satellite records began. A recent study found that Arctic sea ice had thinned by 65% between 1975 and 2012. Bob Ward of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics said: “The gradual disappearance of ice is having profound consequences for people, animals and plants in the polar regions, as well as around the world, through sea level rise.” The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said the maximum level of sea ice for winter was reached this year on 25 February and the ice was now beginning to melt as the Arctic moved into spring. via  BBC News – Arctic sea ice extent hits record low for winter .

NASA: Earth Tops Hottest 12 Months On Record Again, Thanks To Warm February  – NASA reported this weekend that last month was the second-hottest February on record, which now makes March 2014–February 2015 the hottest 12 months on record. This is using a 12-month moving average, so we can “see the march of temperature change over time,” rather than just once every calendar year. How Many Mutual Funds Routinely Rout the Market? Zero  – The bull market in stocks turned six last Monday, and despite some rocky stretches — like last week, when the market fell — it has generally been a very pleasant time for money managers, who have often posted good numbers. Look more closely at those gaudy returns, however, and you may see something startling. The truth is that very few professional investors have actually managed to outperform the rising market consistently over those years. In fact, based on the updated findings and definitions of a particular study, it a...

The immediate threat of El Niño onset appears passed for the 2014–15 cycle. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported this week  that since late 2014, most ENSO indicators have eased back from borderline El Niño levels. As the natural seasonal cycle of ENSO is now entering the decay phase, and models indicate a low chance of an immediate return to El Niño levels, neutral conditions are considered the most likely scenario through into autumn. Central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures have fallen by around half a degree from their peak of 1.1 °C above average in late November. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index has weakened to values more consistent with neutral conditions, while recent cloud patterns show little El Niño signature. As all models surveyed by the Bureau favour a continuation of these neutral conditions in the coming months, the immediate threat of El Niño onset appears passed for the 2014–15 cycle. Hence the ENSO Tracker ha...

Whatever we might think we read him. Andrew Bolt sucks readers in. That makes him influential in the peripheral game of political debate. And on no subject more so than in his claim that global warming has not increased for a decade or more. So I’m disappointed he’s holidaying in Holland now that 2014 is announced as the warmest since records have been kept. I want to read his explanation why the figures don’t mean anything. In the mean time I’ll just have to look at the graphs released this week by the US NOAA and do the best I can tp understand them. Click to enlarge Click to enlarge Click to enlarge

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has upgraded its assessment of the likelihood of an El Niño to 70% and warmer than normal temperatures are increasingly likely to make this current calendar year the warmest in recent history. In its  ENSO Wrap-Up  of the Current state of the Pacific and Indian Oceans released on Wednesday the BOM said the Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Niño development in recent weeks. Above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed further in the past fortnight, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has generally been in excess of El Niño thresholds for the past three months. Climate models suggest current conditions will either persist or strengthen. These factors mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker Status has been upgraded from WATCH to ALERT level, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring. Not all indicators have shifted towards El Niño. Tropical cloudiness near...

The  seasonal climate outlook  released by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggests warmer than normal November to January days are more likely for Australia, except for far western areas of WA. Strongest odds are across northern and eastern parts of the country. Likewise, warmer than normal nights are more likely for most of the continent, except for far western parts of WA, and the northern Queensland coast. Climate influences include warmer than normal temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and near normal tropical Indian Ocean temperatures. Maximum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over most of Australia, except for a region just south of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Minimum temperature accuracy is generally moderate to high over most of Australia. When it comes to rainfall the Bureau suggests a drier than normal November to January is more likely over the northern and eastern Kimberley region of WA, the NT, Queensland, northeast SA, NSW, ...

The relative plateauing of world temperatures since the late 1990s has become the major argument of those who argue that global warming is nonsense. But I wonder what they will say if 2014 turn out to be a new record high point? Personally I’m looking forward to Andrew Bolt’s explanation. And an explanation is looking more and more likely. I reported  earlier this month  how, according to NASA, September just gone was the warmest September globally since records began being kept in 1880. Now the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has reached a similar conclusion and  has speculated  as well with a couple of graphics on what the whole year will end up like. The graphics compare the year-to-date temperature anomalies for 2014 (black line) to what were ultimately the five warmest years on record: 2010, 2005, 1998, 2003, and 2013. Each month along each trace represents the year-to-date average temperature. In other words, the January value is the Jan...

New global temperature records are normally accompanies by an El Niño event but 2014 is well on the way without one. NASA  reported  at the weekend that last month was the warmest September globally since records began being kept in 1880. The first nine months of this year are already close to a record high level as well – 0.65 degrees Centigrade higher than the long term average compared with the 0.67 degree record nine months in 2010. According to  Columbia University’s Earth Institute  there is a better than 50% chance that a mild El Niño will arrive by year’s end to push temperatures to a new record high level.

news release Tuesday that “as counterintuitive as expanding winter Antarctic sea ice may appear on a warming planet, it may actually be a manifestation of recent warming.” The most important thing to know about Antarctica and ice is that a large part of the South Pole’s great sheet of land ice is close to or at a point of no return for irreversible collapse. The rate of loss of that ice has reached record levels, tripling in the last five years alone. Only immediate action to sharply reverse carbon pollution could stop or significantly slow that. And that really matters since 90 percent of Earth’s ice is in the Antarctic ice sheet, and even its partial collapse could raise sea levels by tens of feet (over a period of centuries) and force coastal cities to be abandoned.” Inequality and the Fourth Estate  -From the blog of Roger Farmer (no relation but a man with some similar views) – “The power of money to influence elections suggests an answer to what is otherwise a perplexing qu...

Could Fighting Global Warming Be Cheap and Free?  – Paul Krugman writes: “I’ve just been reading two new reports on the economics of fighting climate change: a big study by a blue-ribbon international group, the New Climate Economy Project, and a working paper from the International Monetary Fund. Both claim that strong measures to limit carbon emissions would have hardly any negative effect on economic growth, and might actually lead to faster growth. This may sound too good to be true, but it isn’t. These are serious, careful analyses.” Forget the national debt. The new budget threat is climate change  – “Shaun Donovan gave his first speech as White House budget director Friday, and he didn’t even mention that Washington obsession of recent years, the $17.8 trillion national debt.No, in the run-up to next week’s United Nations climate summit in New York, the Obama administration is focused like a laser on a different threat to federal finances and the U.S. economy: the con...

The odds of an  El Niño developing this year, and with it the chances of an ultra-hot year for the planet, have dropped considerably. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported this afternoon that despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for an El Niño during much of the first half of 2014, the atmosphere above has largely failed to respond. Hence the ocean and atmosphere have not reinforced each other. As a result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with most of the key NINO regions returning to neutral values. While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has clearly eased, warmer-than-average waters persist in parts of the tropical Pacific, and the (slight) majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for spring. Hence the establishment of El Niño before year’s end cannot be ruled out. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event. Given the current observations and the cl...