politicalowl

The strong showing by UKIP in the UK’s local government elections has resulted in the markets making a five percentage point improvement in the assessed probability of that party gaining most votes in the elections of members to the European Parliament. Those votes for MEPs were caste on the same day as those for local governments but will not be counted until Sunday when elections in all European countries are concluded. At this point of proceedings I am happy with my recommendations: EUROPEAN ELECTION $460 on Labour at $2.20 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election $450 on UKIP at $2.25 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election. UKIP and Labour are both winners. Full details of my political betting are at my  political speculator’s diary blog .

A couple of new polls this morning with predictions on what will happen on Thursday when they vote in the UK to elect members to the European Parliament. The   ComRes  poll in the  Independent on  Sunday  had UKIP clearly doing best and gave an explanation as to why its UKIP figure was higher than that of some other pollsters. One of those other was a  YouGov/Sun poll  that had topline figures of CON 22%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 25%, GRN 10%. Labour are just ahead of UKIP in first place but the  Polling Report  website  commented : A lot of this apparent difference is down to how they approach turnout – YouGov’s topline figures are based on all respondents, if they took only those certain to vote UKIP would be ahead. ComRes’s figures include only those 10/10 certain to vote, if they included those who say they are 5/10 or more likely to vote UKIP’s lead over Labour would be a far more modest 2 points. The betting marke...