politicalowl

The OECD released overnight a rather gloomy update of the state of the world economy. Global GDP growth in 2016 is projected to be no higher than in 2015, itself the slowest pace in the past five years. Estimates for Australia are  not provided in this Interim Economic Outlook  but overall forecasts have again been revised down in light of disappointing recent data. In summary: Growth is slowing in many emerging economies with a very modest recovery in advanced economies and low prices depressing commodity exporters. Trade and investment remain weak. Sluggish demand is leading to low inflation and inadequate wage and employment growth.  Financial instability risks are substantial. Financial markets globally have been reassessing growth prospects, leading to falls in equity prices and higher market volatility. Some emerging markets are particularly vulnerable to sharp exchange rate movements and the effects of high domestic debt.  A stronger collective p...

No evidence in today’s Australian Bureau of Statistics employment figures of a healthily growing economy. I’ll settle on the aggregate monthly hours worked figures to tell the story. It has been a real sideways slide. This May’s budget will be a difficult event for Joe Hockey to negotiate.