politicalowl

The prediction  from the Daily Mirror pundit: Labour was on course to a dismal result ,,, the party's majority ,,, could be cut to less than 1000 in a head-to-head battle with UKIP, And the result: Labour's candidate Jim McMahon secured a 10,722-vote majority from UKIP's John Bickley, and a 62% vote share that was higher than at the general election. The Mirror's Dan Bloom was obviously not given the advice I was as a young journalist playing political  correspondent in Canberra for the first time. "The closer it gets to an event, the less definite should become your opinion" was how the then doyen of the Press Gallery Ian Fitchett warned me. People will laugh at you forever when your prediction is hopelessly wrong but hardly notice and never remember when you get it right. Get ready for the laughter Dan.

The opinion polls pretty much have it 50:50. The Owl Indicator has the Conservatives favourite to win most seats and to provide the Prime Minister.

The opinion polls have the UK election at level pegging. The market has the Conservatives at $1.51 to win the most seats. On Betfair David Cameron is $1.75 to continue as Prime Minister after the election with Labour’ David Milliband at $2.34. To me those odds just don’t make sense. Here is how  The Guardian  assesses what the current polls would produce: (Click to enlarge) Sure the Conservatives by that calculation should be a narrow favourite on the most seats market. But Cameron favourite to continue as PM? Here is how  The Independent  assessed things this morning: Because Labour-held constituencies are smaller than Conservative ones, it is easier for Labour to win most seats. Even though Labour continues to be at risk of heavy losses in Scotland, our latest seat projection puts the party on 293 seats, eighteen ahead of the Conservatives on 275. With Nick Clegg projected to secure just 16 seats, the Prime Minister would be left with too few allies...

I wonder if he’s told them how well it worked in Queensland? From a  Guardian  story this morning on Crosby-Textor’s influence on the Conservative Party’s election campaign

Hardly cheerful New Year’s eve reading for the UK Labour leader Ed Milliband on page one of London’s  Daily Telegraph . Tony Blair, his party’s last election winning leader, and the most electorally successful politician in Labour history, declares that Mr Miliband risked taking his party back to the dark days of the Eighties and early Nineties, when it suffered a series of heavy defeats to the Tories. May’s general election risked becoming one in which a “traditional Left-wing party competes with a traditional Right-wing party, with the traditional result”. Asked by  The Economist  if he meant that the Conservatives would win in those circumstances, Mr Blair replied: “Yes, that is what happens.” Mr Miliband has repeatedly attempted to distance himself from New Labour, but has faced criticism for Left-wing policies, which some have argued are anti-business. In a thinly veiled condemnation of Mr Miliband’s leadership, Mr Blair said that Labour “...

So you thought there was something unique about the way  The Australian  treated opinion polls. Have a look at this morning’s  London Times  as it decides to strengthen the anti-Labour message after the first edition: