politicalowl

Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra The political down time over summer can be something of a respite for an embattled government. But for Scott Morrison, it has just brought more setbacks. The weekend announcement by cabinet minister Kelly O'Dwyer that she will leave parliament at the election is the latest and most serious. O'Dwyer says she wants to see more of her two young children, and would like to have a third, which involves medical challenges. Her decision is understandable. The first woman to have a baby while a federal cabinet minister has been juggling an enormous load. But with the general expectation that the Morrison government is headed for opposition, many people will think (rightly or wrongly) that O'Dwyer was also influenced by the likelihood she faced the grind of opposition, which is a lot less satisfying than the burden of office. Bad timing for the minister for women Her insistence at Saturday’s joint news conference with...

Grattan on Friday:  Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra Malcolm Turnbull has delivered a hefty blow to the struggling Morrison government by refocusing attention on the one question it has desperately tried to smother. That is: why was he sacked? When he appeared on Thursday’s Q&A special, Turnbull was on a dual mission. His neat blue jacket told the story. There would be no reversion to the pre-prime ministerial free-wheeler dressed in leather. He was there to hold his executioners to account, to ensure they have no escape, from him or from the public. And he was primed to defend his record, to write the history of his three years in office as a story of accomplishment and success. He wants to be defined by what he did, rather than by how badly things ended. Essentially he presented himself simultaneously as the victim and the victor. The opening question was predictable but central: “Why aren’t you still prime minister?” Turnbull’s reply was...

Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra There’s a nice story about Arthur Fadden - the Country Party leader who became PM in the 1941 hung parliament amid conservative leadership turmoil - deciding not to move into the Lodge after a colleague told him he’d “scarcely have enough time to wear a track from the backdoor to the shithouse before you’ll be out”. The warning was prophetic: Fadden was dispatched in little over a month, replaced in a House of Representatives vote by Labor’s John Curtin. Scott Morrison, ensconced in Kirribilli, has already had a longer spell than Fadden, and his government appears safe in parliament, despite losing its majority. Regardless of these differences, Morrison’s likely trajectory seems as clear as that of “Artie” all those years ago. The widespread feeling that the Morrison government is doomed will only be reinforced by this week’s outbreak of hostilities between the former and current prime ministers. At one level, it’s hard to believe we’r...

View from The Hill: Discrimination debate will distress many gay school students Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra `The leak of part of the Ruddock report on religious freedom has come at a very bad time in the government’s battle to hold the crucial seat of Wentworth on October 20. But there are other, more serious concerns than the byelection in the debate that’s been opened. Fairfax Media on Wednesday reported that religious schools would be guaranteed the right – under specified conditions - to decline to enrol gay students, in changes to anti-discrimination legislation recommended by the inquiry. Wentworth had a very high vote for same-sex marriage in the plebiscite – almost 81% in favour compared with less than 58% for NSW as a whole. And the main threat to the Liberals’ grip on the seat is from Kerryn Phelps, a prominent (and gay) figure in the marriage equality campaign. No wonder Liberal candidate Dave Sharma was quick to say he would be “opposed to any new m...

Grattan on Friday: Wentworth preselectors' rebuff to Morrison caps week of mayhem Wentworth candidate Dave Sharna Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra In the early hours of Friday morning, the Liberal preselectors of Wentworth delivered their new prime minister a humiliating public slapdown. In selecting Dave Sharma, 42, former Australian ambassador to Israel and now a partner in an accountancy firm, as the candidate for the October 20 byelection, the preselectors have on all accounts chosen the best candidate. But Scott Morrison had made it known he wanted a woman, a preference that’s been embarrassingly rejected. Katherine O'Regan, who was supposed to come out the winner, ran fifth. Moreover, on Thursday it was learned that John Howard and Malcolm Turnbull were both encouraging Sharma to stay in the contest. So the two former prime ministers managed to do over the current prime minister. The Wentworth Liberals, whose local member and PM was cut down, h...

Grattan on Friday Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra Australia’s “coup culture” has become so entrenched that it now holds serious dangers for our democracy. Not that the politicians seem to give a damn. For all the talk of “listening” and being “on your side” the voters have once again been treated as little more than a gullible audience for a low-grade reality show. A decade or two ago, many commentators advocated four-year federal terms, to encourage better policymaking. Now we can’t even count on a prime minister lasting through the three-year parliamentary term after the election they win. In less than a decade, we’ve had four prime ministerial coups: from Rudd to Gillard (2010); from Gillard to Rudd (2013); from Abbott to Turnbull (2015); and, last week, from Turnbull to Morrison. A couple of these seemed politically savvy. I admit to thinking them so. In 2013, Kevin Rudd was reinstated to “save the furniture”, and he did. In 2015, Tony Abbott’s government appear...

Grattan on Friday: Malcolm Turnbull's NEG remains in snake-infested territory Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra Malcolm Turnbull had a party-room victory but a god-awful week, and it wasn’t because his approval plunged in Monday’s Newspoll . His energy policy is back in the mire, and Tony Abbott is being – as one colleague neatly describes it – the agent of chaos. It’s nearly unimaginable how the Coalition chooses to replay that old self-destructive record. In Bill Shorten’s office they’ve been digging out the 2009 headlines, such as “Battered Turnbull faces mutiny” and “Abbott leaves leader in crisis”. Well, Turnbull is not “in crisis” but things are quite a serious mess, as those who hate him, plus others who don’t, sharpen their attack in another round of the climate wars. In Tuesday’s Coalition parties meeting, where Turnbull won strong support for his energy policy, several reserved their right to cross the floor on the emissions reduction legislation, and ...

Bill Shorten outbids Turnbull's tax cut for lower and middle income earners Shorten pledged to give bigger income tax cuts for 10 million taxpayers. Lukas Coch/AAP Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra Opposition leader Bill Shorten has launched a tax bidding war, promising to top the government’s tax relief for lower and middle income earners, as he prepares to fight a string of byelections in Labor seats. The Labor alternative almost doubles the budget’s relief for these taxpayers, incorporating the early part of the government’s plan and then building on it. Delivering his budget reply in Parliament on Thursday night, Shorten pledged to give bigger income tax cuts for 10 million taxpayers. Some four million would get A$398 a year more than the $530 under the government’s plan. Labor’s “Working Australians Tax Refund”, would cost $5.8 billion more than the government’s plan over the forward estimates. Labor’s alternative comes as debate intensifies abou...

View from the Hill: Shorten puts heat on government over bank victim compensation, as Coalition gets better poll news Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra Sometimes it’s not a bad idea to have a lie-in on Sunday morning. Financial Services Minister Kelly O'Dwyer might wish she’d done so at the weekend. O'Dwyer should not have gone out – or been put out - on the ABC’s Insiders program with the lines she had on the banking royal commission. The interview was agony to watch, and counter-productive for the government, as she steadfastly refused to admit the Coalition had been wrong in not agreeing earlier to the inquiry, which has produced such devastating disclosures. So often the government seems to take the public for fools. Scott Morrison’s attempts to turn everything to a discussion of Bill Shorten are ludicrous. O'Dwyer’s effort to avoid any confession of error just drew more attention to the bad call. Remember O'Dwyer is well-versed in the financial ...

Grattan on Friday: Live sheep exports tarnish Australia's reputation and should be stopped Australia’s sheep trade is worth $250 million annually and involves about two million sheep. Steven Walling/Wikipedia , CC BY-SA Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra If a farmer were caught subjecting animals on his or her property to the suffering endured by the sheep on the Emanuel Exports ship last August, they’d find themselves in court, perhaps in jail, and almost certainly banned from possessing animals in future. When it’s an export company, it gets a permit for another shipment. The public, and new Agriculture Minister David Littleproud, have been predictably angered by the recent footage brought to light by Animals Australia, shot by a whistleblower on the ship. In the August voyage about 2400 animals died horribly, some apparently literally melting, with another couple of hundred unaccounted for. A year before, more than 300...

Grattan on Friday: Coal fires Tony Abbott's pre-Newspoll play Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra One Liberal moderate bluntly characterises the “Monash Forum”, which burst into the energy debate this week, as “the deplorables trying to give themselves a credible front”. Whatever else it might be, the so-called forum is Tony Abbott’s latest weapon in baiting the Turnbull bear. Coalition backbenchers who signed the forum’s letter, which calls for the government to construct a new coal-fired power station in the Latrobe Valley on the site of the now-closed Hazelwood, are driven by various motives – revenge against Malcolm Turnbull, an ideological commitment to coal, the desire to sharpen the differences with Labor, a passion for publicity. For Abbott and his allies Kevin Andrews and Eric Abetz this is a guerilla operation, in part building on an earlier loose conservative grouping. There is also a strong “coal constituency” within Coalition ranks. It looks like the gath...

Note: This piece was written before Barnaby Joyce questioned whether he is the father of the child his partner is expecting. Grattan on Friday: What was that about making Parliament House a better workplace for women? Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern – who flew into Sydney on Thursday night for a 24-hour visit – admits she’d struggle if she were operating in the Australian political environment. In an interview with The Conversation, Ardern said that while politics in her country is very robust: “I have observed and thought, gosh there is another level there in Australia”. We’ve seen yet again this week how low that level can fall. When on Wednesday cabinet minister Michaelia Cash delivered her extraordinary threat to “name every young woman in Mr Shorten’s office over which rumours in this place abound”, she didn’t just insult identifiable individuals – she also further debased our already degraded political system. Ima...