politicalowl

When you see opinion poll data like that below in The Australian  this morning the inclination is to remember that with six months or so to an actual polling day that things can change. Five percentage points is near enough to the the normal error with so far to go and a 45% Coalition share can easily become 50%. That's the way most people would look at it but deviations can go down as well as up. If you don't think that's so go to Wikipedia and read about the Canadian election of 1993 . The governing Progressive Conservatives were polling at 36% early in September (down from the 43% with which they had won office in 1988) but at the election at the end of October the PCs managed just 16%. And the result? Down from 169 seats to 2. Just something for Coalition members in Australia to think about.

Yesterday the Owl posted an excellent Tony Walker piece on the search for the Liberal Party's base . This morning a helpful reader claims success in that searching endeavour and has sent in a picture to prove it.

Tony Walker , La Trobe University John Howard was fond of referring to the Liberal Party as a “broad church”. This included its conservative “base”. But what has eluded those seeking to define this amorphous group of electors is exactly what is meant by this description. What is the base? Who are its members? Where do they reside? What are their preoccupations? Where do their preferences lie? Then there is the overarching question of exactly what the Liberal Party stands for these days. Is it a liberal party in the sense it is a centrist, socially progressive and fiscally conservative party? Read more: 'Balmain basket weavers' strike again, tearing the Liberal Party apart Is it a right-of-centre party that is socially conservative, or is it a proto-conservative party defined by a scepticism about climate change edging towards a form of denialism? What confronts Scott Morrison, the new leader , is how to reconcile these conflicting tendencies and come up wi

The Owl particularly notes the contribution to this Twitter exchange by Pip Courtney. Anyone who watches her contributions to ABC television on Sundays will know why the Owl considers her to be one of Australia's best and balanced journalists Memo to Nats from rural women: 1. We got the vote in 1902. 2. Find your moral compass. 3. You told us to 'put up or shut up'. We put up. 4. The past is a place you don't want to go. Regenerate. Do it NOW @M_McCormackMP @gabriellechan @senbmckenzie @D_LittleproudMP @AgChatOZ — Sue Middleton (@Middleton_Says) October 17, 2018 This is what I’m talking about re mooted return to Barnaby as leader. Seriously well connected rural women telling Nats to look forward + not back. Rural women don’t enter the political debate lightly as it is hard to push against culture but it is happening cos they’re cranky. https://t.co/r67fxJNhR4 — Gabrielle Chan (@gabriellechan) October 18, 2018 Rural women have been in Canberra all wee

Goodness me the man was still talking this evening. Talking to Alan Jones no less. PM Scomo is proving to be a political motor mouth. The Owl reckons a theme song is necessary.

Surely the voters of Wentworth will not be influenced by the suggestion from that seasoned marketer Scomo PM and his offsider Dave “The Charmer” Sharma that Australia might move its Israel embassy to Jerusalem. The trade threat from Indonesia aside, not one Australian authority - be it trade, foreign affairs or national security - will ever endorse the move, leaving scomo after the Wentworth race in a very much “where the bloody hell are you” space and members of Australia’s formidable Jewish community feeling they have been gamed. Moving Australia's embassy to Jerusalem a 'fatal mistake' Middle Eastern envoys warn, as fall out from the putative Israel shift continues https://t.co/cvb1pQdwUh #auspol — Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) October 16, 2018

He once was the Belgian migrant golden boy of the Liberal Party. "Mathias Cormann has an unchallenged reputation as the Mr Dependable of the Turnbull government. - Norman Abjorensen 3 July 2018 "Cormann's political star is shining brighter than ever. ... Cormann has had a political run few can match, a truly magnificent career." - Jo Spagnolo 24 June 2018 "... a significant new figure has arrived on the national political stage." -  Jeff Kitney 2 May 2014 "Mathias Cormann’s 'pragmatic' negotiating style has won over key Senate crossbenchers as he takes the lead in brokering deals on the government’s economic agenda." - Rosie Lewis 4 April 2017 "His capacity to dissect issues is phenomenal. That's why I enjoy Mathias' company so much. He can sit down and he can literally dissect issues and look at them in a very very reasoned manner and come up with a value judgement, which is extraordinary." - Former WA Education Minist

View from The Hill: Discrimination debate will distress many gay school students Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra `The leak of part of the Ruddock report on religious freedom has come at a very bad time in the government’s battle to hold the crucial seat of Wentworth on October 20. But there are other, more serious concerns than the byelection in the debate that’s been opened. Fairfax Media on Wednesday reported that religious schools would be guaranteed the right – under specified conditions - to decline to enrol gay students, in changes to anti-discrimination legislation recommended by the inquiry. Wentworth had a very high vote for same-sex marriage in the plebiscite – almost 81% in favour compared with less than 58% for NSW as a whole. And the main threat to the Liberals’ grip on the seat is from Kerryn Phelps, a prominent (and gay) figure in the marriage equality campaign. No wonder Liberal candidate Dave Sharma was quick to say he would be “opposed to any new m

James Halliday is the man the Owl turns to when it comes to expensive wines that he normally cannot afford but likes to keep informed about. The column in The Weekend Australian is a must read. Yesterday there was a little disappointment. The expected Halliday verdict on the just released 2014 Grange was reduced to this: "The 2014 Grange (97 points, drink to 2044, $900) has been done no service by its cork closure. My quarrel with corks in red wines isn’t the risk of TCA (the mouldy smell), nor oxidation. It’s a purely mechanical issue: Grange is capable of living far longer than 30 years, but its FAQ (fair average quality) corks give no promise of doing so." And that was that before he went on to give notes on three other wines from the Penfolds collection.