Will the bandwagon effect really beat Tasmanian Labor?
When it comes to political betting the Owl has always been an underdog man. Experience has taught him that the average punter puts too much emphasis on the latest opinion poll and that favourites end up too short.
In the Tasmanian state election tomorrow the market also seems to be given credence to the idea of a bandwagon effect. The local polling pundit Dr Kevin Bonham puts it this way on his blog:
Labor is losing the fight against the bandwagon effect, which is strong in Tasmania because many voters see avoiding a hung parliament as important. The Liberals have churned out internal polling data showing their own party ahead if not clearly winning and Labor has not effectively countered this narrative. Labor has claimed its internal polling shows that Labor can win a majority (and were out doing so again today) but this is especially unconvincing when they can't provide evidence that it is true.
Given that the conventional wisdom in Tasmania now is that the Liberals are likely to be returned, the Owl expects that any bandwagon effect will be less than it would be otherwise.
Sportsbet has the Tasmanian Liberals at $1.47 and Labor at the juicy odds of $3 in a two horse race.
The Owl is very tempted!
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