Labor would have won the Batman byelection if it had been held this week, delivering union leader Ged Kearney to Canberra and denying Greens candidate Alex Bhathal for a sixth time, a poll has found.
In a phone poll this week of about 700 voters in the Batman electorate, Labor led the Greens 53 points to 47 in a two-party preferred contest.
And over in the world of punters and bookmakers they have taken virtually no notice.
The Greens remain the firm favourites, paying $1.23 for a dollar in one place and $1.20 in another. That puts the percentage chances at Greens 70% to Labor at 30%.
The pollster and the market clearly disagree.
The Owl's opinion? He does not have the faintest, foggiest clue but thinks it makes no real difference either way to the way the country is governed.