Northcote by-election an epic opinion polling failure for the CFMEU and ReachTEL
An ABC News report on the eve of the Northcote by-election:
Northcote by-election: New union-commissioned poll forecasts Labor victory in Saturday ballot
So Labor's predicted vote share 54% and the actual share 44%.
I noticed that the ABC News report on the result reporting the Greens victory did not make any reference to the two candidate preferred vote. One way to avoid embarrassment.
Northcote by-election: New union-commissioned poll forecasts Labor victory in Saturday ballot
Labor should be able to hold on to Northcote in a by-election, according to a new poll released on the eve of the vote in the seat under threat from the Greens.The Victorian Election Commission at the close of counting on Saturday night:
Saturday's by-election in progressive Northcote pits Labor against the Greens, who have been closing the gap on their major party rivals in the seat over the past decade. ...
But new polling from ReachTEL of 850 voters— commissioned by the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union— shows Labor leading on a two-party preferred basis 54 per cent to 46 per cent.
The primary vote shows Labor's Clare Burns on 38.8 per cent ahead of the Greens Lidia Thorpe on 34.4 per cent.
The poll tested support from the Animal Justice Party (3.8 per cent), Liberal Democrats (4.7 per cent) or an independent (8.7 per cent).
Based on further questions to undecided and minor parties, ReachTEL calculated a two-party win for Labor.
So Labor's predicted vote share 54% and the actual share 44%.
I noticed that the ABC News report on the result reporting the Greens victory did not make any reference to the two candidate preferred vote. One way to avoid embarrassment.
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