The irrelevance of opinion polls a long time out from an election

While updating my table of The Australian's Newspoll results today (you will find the collection HERE) it struck me once again just how irrelevant poll results are a long time out from an election.
The table below compares Labor's two party vote 15 months after an election (like the one this week) with Labor's actual vote at the following election.


Labor on Newspoll 15 months after an election Labor vote at next election Difference in percentage points
55 49.3 5.7
43 46.5 3.5
58 50.1 7.9
48 52.7 4.7
49 47.2 1.8

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