Friday, 1 July 2016

Predicting the election result: They'll all sink or swim together

No one among the media pundits is prepared to be different. From what I have seen, every last one of them reckons Malcolm Turnbull is going to be a winner. There's safety in being one of the herd. If Turnbull doesn't stay Prime Minister then at least the experts will be able to say "we all went down together".
But let me dare to be different. I don't have one of those shrinking jobs in journalism to worry about. Being wrong has no potential monetary loss for me. I can dare to venture that the circumstances have never been better for what I call the underdog effect in electoral politics.
When there's an overwhelming consensus among opinion leaders and the public that there is a near certain winner, those members of the public are prone to act in a perverse fashion - especially when they don't particularly like the short priced favourite. It's as if they want to curb potential future arrogance by not allowing the victory to be too large and wake up the next morning surprised that so many acted in the same fashion. Think Campbell Newman in Queensland and Jeff Kennett in Victoria you'll get the picture.
Hence a Bill Shorten win will not surprise me and I have adjusted my gambling on the result accordingly. Should the pundits and the betting market prove correct I will get out all square and if the outsider gets up there will be a nice little win.

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