politicalowl

The Prime Minister’s chief of staff will open proceedings with an inspirational version of : The Prime Minister will conclude the morale boosting with a few verses of:  

A victory for the LNP but defeat for Campbell Newman are being pointed to by The Owl’s election indicators.

The Rupert Murdoch I have known (and sometimes worked for as both journalist and lobbyist) is politically astute enough to know that calling for the dismissal of Peta Credlin ensured that Tony Abbott would keep her in the job as his chief of staff. A Prime Minister would not survive being seen to cave in to the public advice of his tweets. No. The cunning old fellow actually has Tony in his sights not Peta. As I  wrote on Tuesday : Be afraid Tony Abbott, be very afraid. The News Corp empire has determined that a Coalition government led by you will put Labor back in office and that would never do.

The political difficulty for politicians in campaigning to have Indonesia spare Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan from the death penalty was shown by a recent Morgan Poll. A special snap SMS Morgan Poll today shows a small majority of Australians (52%, down 1% since August 2009) say that Australians convicted of drug trafficking in another country and sentenced to death should be executed while 48% (up 1%) don’t. Of Australians, a larger majority (62%) said the Australian Government should not do more to stop the execution of Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan while 38% say the Australian Government should do more to stop the execution.

@sprocket___ Abbott knighthood a joke and embarrassment. Time to scrap all honours everywhere, including UK. — Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) January 27, 201 @sprocket___ Abbott knighthood a joke and embarrassment. Time to scrap all honours everywhere, including UK. — Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch)  Be afraid Tony Abbott, be very afraid. The worm has well and truly turned. See  The Abbott nightmare came on waking up

Well the stop writs have stopped nothing. Alan Jones was back on air this morning repeating his stories about Campbell Newman the liar and tossing in an intriguing new one about and mining on North Stradbroke Island for good measure. I particularly enjoyed the chat about sociopaths in politics but I won’t go into detail because I have neither the money more the courage of an Alan Jones when it comes to such defamatory things. What a pity that scandal takes such a long time to seep through into public consciousness. The Liberal National Party government remains favourite to win on Saturday.

If the radio and television yesterday had not got the message across, the real extent of his bad judgment greeted Tony Abbott when he looked at his newspapers this morning. It was not just that Fairfax lot. The Murdoch team were putting the boot in just as vigorously. I expect the opinion polls to show yet another decline in prime ministerial support and for Liberal backbenchers to get even more restless. Surviving as leader until the next election will take a major effort by Tony Abbott.

Frederic Bastiat and football punditry  – “In the day job I call Arsene Wenger a great economist. I’m making a serious point. … there is a close affinity between economics and sport; each can illuminate the other. I suspect you could learn more about economics from football than you could from the empty suits at Davos this week. “ U.S. Research Lab Lets Livestock Suffer in Quest for Profit  – Animal Welfare at Risk in Experiments for Meat Industry – “Pigs are having many more piglets — up to 14, instead of the usual eight — but hundreds of those newborns, too frail or crowded to move, are being crushed each year when their mothers roll over. Cows, which normally bear one calf at a time, have been retooled to have twins and triplets, which often emerge weakened or deformed, dying in such numbers that even meat producers have been repulsed. Then there are the lambs. In an effort to develop “easy care” sheep that can survive without costly shelters or shepherds, ...

A slight movement in favour of Labor on the Ow’s Queensland election indicator but the Liberal National Party government is still the firm favourite. But perhaps the approach of the Murdoch press suggests there are fears that things really are getting closer. When politicians try and switch attention to their spouses you know their own popularity leaves something to be desired.

It's back on page 17 of the  Courier Mail  so it will escape the attention of most voters but it wins my award as the most striking ad of the Queensland election campaign. Something that might have an impact is the tag on Labor Party radio messages – mark ever square and put the LNP last. If I was running the Labor Party campaign I would be saying nothing else but that in advertisements. See  The difficulty in calculating a two party vote in Queensland . See also the archive of  the Owl’s items on the Queensland election

When pollsters calculate their prediction of the two party preferred vote they take the experience of the previous election in distributing the preferences of third party candidates. That’s a sensible enough procedure in normal election circumstances but I suspect that is not what we will see in Queensland on Saturday week. The Clive Palmer and Bob Katter candidates plus some of the prominent independents are promising to do something different this time and direct preferences away from the Liberal National Party. Hence I am uncertain about how much credence to put on the latest predictions of Newspoll and Reachtel. They both have it at 52% LNP to 48% ALP but perhaps it is closer than that. Tonight’s Reachtel findings as shown on the 7 Network: Two party preferred

The immediate threat of El Niño onset appears passed for the 2014–15 cycle. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported this week  that since late 2014, most ENSO indicators have eased back from borderline El Niño levels. As the natural seasonal cycle of ENSO is now entering the decay phase, and models indicate a low chance of an immediate return to El Niño levels, neutral conditions are considered the most likely scenario through into autumn. Central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures have fallen by around half a degree from their peak of 1.1 °C above average in late November. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index has weakened to values more consistent with neutral conditions, while recent cloud patterns show little El Niño signature. As all models surveyed by the Bureau favour a continuation of these neutral conditions in the coming months, the immediate threat of El Niño onset appears passed for the 2014–15 cycle. Hence the ENSO Tracker ha...

Rocketing vaccine cost warning  – “The price of life-saving vaccines has skyrocketed leaving some countries struggling to fully immunise children, Medecins Sans Frontieres warns.  A report by the charity says there has been a 68-fold increase in prices between 2001 and 2014. It accused the pharmaceutical industry of overcharging and highlighted cases where rich western countries were getting a better rate than poor ones. Industry said its pricing reflected the cost of manufacture.” Hating Good Government  – “… most self-proclaimed conservatives are actually reactionaries. That is, they’re defenders of traditional hierarchy — the kind of hierarchy that is threatened by any expansion of government, even (or perhaps especially) when that expansion makes the lives of ordinary citizens better and more secure.” Click to enlarge OECD employment rate increases to 65.7% in third quarter of 2014  – “The OECD area employment rate – defined as the shar...

Scandalous behaviour by politicians. and more so an accusation of it, takes a long time to seep through into public consciousness so I expect Alan Jones’ words this morning about coal mining and Lawrence Springborg will have no impact on Queensland election day. Nevertheless the story of the coal miners avoiding the Springborg family farm made for titillating listening and there is sure to be more to come – especially if Palmer United Party Senator Glenn Lazarus passes on a few of the tit-bits mentioned in  The Australian  yesterday:

The significance of the wine barrels illustrating this Chinese government newsagency tweet on China’s falling growth rates escapes me but  the story it points to  might drive some iron ore producers to drink. BEIJING, Jan. 20 (Xinhua) — China’s economy grew 7.4 percent in 2014, in line with market expectations and registering the weakest expansion in 24 years, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Tuesday. The reading was slightly below the government target of around 7.5 percent for the year, as authorities are at pains to transform the economy onto a more sustainable track while tackling a housing slowdown, softening domestic demand and weak global recovery. Last year, the country’s gross domestic product reached 63.65 trillion yuan (10.4 trillion U.S. dollars). Growth in the fourth quarter came in at 7.3 percent, flat with the rate seen in the third. “The economy is maintaining steady operation under the new normal, with positive trends of stable growth, ...

A gentle aging is apparently quite alright if you want to continue as a political party power broker. Melbourne financial wheeler and dealer Michael Kroger is seeking to become president of the Victorian branch of the Liberal Party at the age of 57. Yet, as  The Australian  reported this morning, one of his aims if he gets his hands on the title will be a “drive for a series of new, younger candidates to contest safe state and federal seats. Why is it, I regularly wonder, that as the median age of the population gets older, these mature aged “power brokers” continue to be fascinated with attracting youthful parliamentary candidates? Why not a 30 year old party president instead or as well as?

Radio talk show hosts like Alan Jones have an influence on our political life because politicians think they have an influence on public opinion. I have never seen objective evidence of such impact but politicians are not mugs when it comes to deciding what influences their voters so I don’t completely dismiss the idea. Which is why I am intrigued by the entry of the Sydney based Alan Jones in to the Queensland election campaign. Now this intervention is no ordinary pre-election rant by a conservative commentator. Alan Jones has moved to Brisbane to broadcast for the duration of the campaign to turn his form of vitriol on to Liberal National Party Premier Campbell Newman. Consider this morning’s offering as  summarised  by the ABC : Jones told radio 4BC the Newman government had an appalling track record. “Make no bones about it – this is as bad as anything we’ve ever seen in government in Australia anywhere,” he said. He described Mr Newman as a bully and that ...

TOTAL NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES Trend estimates: The December 2014 trend estimate (92 618) has decreased by 0.1% when compared with November 2014. The trend estimate has now decreased by 0.1% for five consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted estimates: The December 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate (94 903) has increased by 3.0% when compared with November 2014. Cover of darkness  – The cypherpunks are winning the second crypto-war against government spies. What will happen when everyone is anonymous? Oasis or Mirage? Jordan’s Unlikely Stability in a Changing Middle East  – “Jordan’s stability and security are not figments of the imagination, especially considering the revolutions, civil wars and endemic terrorism that seem to have afflicted most of the country’s neighbors. Yet the calm may not be sustainable, as Jordan confronts its own continuing struggles over reform and change; faces seemingly countless threats in terms of its internal and external security; and at...

Pope on Climate Change: Man Has ‘Slapped Nature in the Face’  - ‘Pope Francis said Thursday he is convinced that global warming is “mostly” man-made and that he hopes his upcoming encyclical on the environment will encourage negotiators at a climate change meeting in Paris to make “courageous” decisions to protect God’s creation. Francis has spoken out frequently about the “culture of waste” that has imperiled the environment and he elaborated en route to the Philippines. While there, Francis will meet with survivors of the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan, which the government has said was an example of the extreme weather conditions that global warming has wrought. “I don’t know if it (human activity) is the only cause, but mostly, in great part, it is man who has slapped nature in the face,” he said. “We have in a sense taken over nature.” “I think we have exploited nature too much,” Francis said, citing deforestation and monoculture. “Thanks be to God that today there are vo...

Whatever we might think we read him. Andrew Bolt sucks readers in. That makes him influential in the peripheral game of political debate. And on no subject more so than in his claim that global warming has not increased for a decade or more. So I’m disappointed he’s holidaying in Holland now that 2014 is announced as the warmest since records have been kept. I want to read his explanation why the figures don’t mean anything. In the mean time I’ll just have to look at the graphs released this week by the US NOAA and do the best I can tp understand them. Click to enlarge Click to enlarge Click to enlarge

A week and a bit away from Canberra with no newspapers and limited social media and it’s amazing the different perspective you get of political life. From inner Melbourne to the outer suburbs and then Eden on the south coast of New South Wales and barely a mention of government or opposition, Abbott or Shorten. Normally the people I mix with, knowing my obsession with matters political, ask a few polite questions and make a comment or two about the way the country is being governed. But not this summer. With one exception. Moslems. I found that’s the barbecue stopping dirty word for people from a variety of social spheres. Some intolerance I expected. The vehement extent of it in conversations surprised me. The opportunities for unscrupulous politicians from this sentiment are frightening.

No evidence in today’s Australian Bureau of Statistics employment figures of a healthily growing economy. I’ll settle on the aggregate monthly hours worked figures to tell the story. It has been a real sideways slide. This May’s budget will be a difficult event for Joe Hockey to negotiate.

Tony Abbott and his federal government is top of the list of negatives as Campbell Newman sets out on his short-as-possible election campaign. Hoping the Prime Minister goes back to his holiday by the beach and stays there for as long as possible would be one reason for choosing 31 January polling day. For the Queensland Liberal National Party the less said about those federal colleagues the better. So let’s try and pretend we are different so we can quickly move on to other things  The  Courier Mail  attempted product differentiation this morning before moving on to the separate aspect of leadership negatives: who actually will LNP voters be supporting as Premier? The fact that Premier Newman’s own seat is far more vulnerable than his government overall creates a diversion that Labor will delight in exploiting. Of more concern to the Brisbane daily on its editorial pages was the danger of minor parties having an unhealthy influence. The  Courier’s  editori...

A bit of photo shopping on day one to get things started – Courier Mail 7 January As candidate Kate goes walking too – Courier Mail 7 January But none of that walking nonsense for Clive – The Australian 7 January Townsville Bulletin 8 January Premier walking with the kids – The Australian 8 January Doing a little jogging for the cameras – The Australian 8 January And now a little canoeing for the action man – The Australian 8 January Full Queensland election coverage  HERE