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Showing posts from November, 2014

Jar Jar Binks and political popularity

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America’s Favorite ‘Star Wars’ Movies (And Least Favorite Characters)  – “Finally, we took a boilerplate format used by political favorability polls — “Please state whether you view the following characters favorably, unfavorably, or are unfamiliar with him/her” — and asked respondents to rate characters in the series. You read that correctly. Jar Jar Binks has a lower favorability rating than the actual personification of evil in the galaxy. Darth Vader is polling higher than all potential 2016 presidential candidates  – “On the other hand, with a net favorability of -8, Jar Jar is considerably more popular than the U.S. Congress, which currently enjoys a net favorability rating of -65. In fact, the last time congressional net favorability was above that was February 2005. Incidentally this was just before the release date of “Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith,” which marked Jar Jar’s last appearance on the big screen. Budget Problems? Kentucky and Elsewhere Find Answer

Trade unions really can be a positive for Labor and other lessons from Victoria

A few thoughts in the aftermath of the Victorian state election. Trade unions don’t have to be a negative for Labor; they really can be a positive. Fire fighters, nurses and teachers all played an important part in Saturday’s victory. Their grass-roots campaigning efforts appear to have had far more influence than the linking of Denial Andrews with the supposedly criminal CFMEU. I salute whoever devised this strategy. Voters don’t seem to attach much weight to AAA credit ratings. The Coalition thought it was a big plus for them but balancing the budget was well down the list of things Victorians thought important. Supporting wage rises that are less than the inflation rate is a sure-fire way to lose support. Unemployment is the important economic indicator even if it is unfair to blame the state government for Victoria’s high figure. Something for the Abbott team to think about as it slashes public service numbers The influence of distortion of news by newspapers on voting is no

Maybe we should spare a thought for the dead cricket umpire

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It was in Israel where cricket is not a major sport but still. This sporting death was relegated to page 10.

The civilised Swiss – roast Christmas cat with dog sausage

Switzerland: Ban Urged on Eating Cats and Dogs – NYTimes.com . By  REUTERS NOV. 26, 2014 An animal rights group has petitioned the Swiss government to ban a traditional, if rare, practice of eating cats for Christmas dinner and turning dogs into sausages. Tomi Tomek, president of the animal rights group SOS CHATS Noiraigue, said 3 percent of the population still eats cat and dog. “You can’t report it to the police because there’s no law against it,” he said

The barnacles really are dragging the Abbott coalition down

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The opinion polls have been showing it for some time and now the markets are catching up. The current Owl's election indicator shows the Coalition's chances of re-election have dropped considerably in recent weeks. The probability of a Coalition victory is now just 53.6%.

Labor still favoured to win election in Victoria

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The Owl’s market based election indicator still has Labor quite a firm favourite to win tomorrow’s Victorian state election but its chances have not improved any over the last week. To me this suggests there are believers in the underdog theory of elections alive and well. One chance in six of a Coalition victory is enough to make election night worth following for at least a few hours.

China To Cap Coal Use By 2020

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China To Cap Coal Use By 2020 To Meet Game-Changing Climate, Air Pollution Targets  – “The Chinese government announced Wednesday it would cap coal use by 2020. The Chinese State Council, or cabinet, said the peak would be 4.2 billion tonnes, a one-sixth increase over current consumption. This is a staggering reversal of Chinese energy policy, which for two decades has been centered around building a coal plant or more a week. Now they’ll be building the equivalent in carbon-free power every week for decades, while the construction rate of new coal plants decelerates like a crash-test dummy.” Click to enlarge State of the Climate: Global Analysis  – The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for October 2014 was the highest on record for October, at 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). The global land surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th century average of 9.3°C (48.7°F)—the fifth highest for October on record

And even the banking regulators were in on the act

Bank of England to probe whether staff helped rig money auctions – FT.com . The Bank of England has opened a formal investigation into whether its officials knew of – and even facilitated – the possible manipulation of auctions designed to inject money into the credit markets to alleviate the financial crisis. The probe, which started in the summer, has been revealed just a week after the UK central bank published a report that criticised its own response to the foreign exchange rigging scandal. Lord Grabiner QC, a senior British advocate who led the separate forex inquiry, has been asked by the BoE to head the new investigation. He is to probe whether a series of money-market auctions held by the central bank in late 2007 and early 2008 were rigged, and whether officials were party to any manipulation, according to people familiar with the issue.

Abbott’s own team are getting uneasy about him as leader

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The supporters are getting restless. Tony Abbott is disappointing them. The number one cheer leader this morning: These extracts give the flavour: It’s a simple lesson that Mr Abbott has failed to grasp: talking points and three-word slogans can never suffice. “Australia is open for business” does not constitute a narrative or provide inspiration. “Team Australia” has hokey appeal, but it, too, does not work as an explanation for complex national security issues. Limply, the Prime Minister is losing the battle to define core issues and to explain to voters what he is doing and why. At stake is his political credibility, no less. Mr Abbott risks becoming a “oncer” if he allows his opponents to constantly control the agenda. … Other than in some formal set pieces, he has lost his authoritative voice. Of course, it is no use blaming ill-equipped, tyro advisers. The Prime Minister’s Office is too dominated by Peta Credlin, his chief of staff, including on media strategy. …

How the Democratic Party Lost Its Soul

How the Democratic Party Lost Its Soul  - “The trouble started when the party abandoned its working-class base.” Global triumph conceals a house of disorder   – “It says something about our politics that Jacqui Lambie and Ricky Muir are now part of the Coalition of Common Sense that is actually (on this occasion at least) making more sense than the government.” Contemporary art is judged by its price tag not by aesthetics Around the Globe, Private Label’s Appeal Goes Beyond Price  – “Long gone are the days of no-frills packaging intended only for those on a tight budget—private labels, also known as store brands, are no longer viewed simply as low-cost alternatives to name brands. They’re increasingly high-quality products that fulfill consumer needs across a variety of price points.” Steve FitzGerald on Gough Whitlam, Chairman Mao and Premier Zhou  – “The ‘big ideas’ about which so much has been said and written in the last few weeks, came from the big learning, the foundation of

In Victoria is the election all over bar the voting? Maybe, but the Greens are providing plenty of interest

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Two opinion polls today on the Victorian state election with one showing Labor on course for a comfortable win and the other suggesting a crushing defeat is in store for the Coalition government. This morning Galaxy: This afternoon  Roy Morgan : Both pollsters are showing the Greens doing well – Galaxy has them with a primary vote of 13% while Morgan puts their support at a staggeringly high 19.5%. Gary Morgan comments: Gary Morgan says: “Opposition Leader Dan Andrews has grabbed a significant lead with a week to go before the Victorian Election with the ALP (55%) well ahead of the L-NP (45%) on a two-party preferred basis. A victory for the Labor Party will mean the Liberal Government of Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine will be the first one-term Government in Victoria since John Cain Snr. in 1952-1955. “Although the two major parties are almost level on primary vote: ALP (35.5%) cf. L-NP (35%), the high expected Greens vote (19.5%) would ensure a strong flow of prefe

Cartoonist captures Tony Abbott's election losing mistake

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Tony Abbott transformed into Julia Gillard the liar. This morning's cartoon in the Melbourne  Herald Sun  says it all . And my guess is that the result will be the same. Ms Gillard did not recover from breaking breaking her no carbon tax in a government I lead promise. The same fate awaits Tony Abbott over the spending cuts for the ABC and SBS.

When they put on a banker’s hat otherwise honest people become dishonest

Readers of my  Ticket Clippers  postings  will not be surprised by this latest piece of academic research. A new study by Alain Cohn, Ernst Fehr, and Michel Maréchal from the Department of Economics at the University of Zurich shows that bank employees are in principle not more dishonest than their colleagues in other industries. The findings indicate, however, that the business culture in the banking sector implicitly favors dishonest behavior. The scientists recruited approximately 200 bank employees, 128 from a large international bank and 80 from other banks. Each person was then randomly assigned to one of two experimental conditions. In the experimental group, the participants were reminded of their occupational role and the associated behavioral norms with appropriate questions. In contrast, the subjects in the control group were reminded of their non-occupational role in their leisure time and the associated norms. Subsequently, all participants completed a task that would a

Hobart Mercury urges independence on Jacqui Lambie

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Quite an endorsement this morning for Senator Jacqui Lambie from Tasmania’s leading daily  The Mercury. It is advice she would be wise to follow. Tasmanians have a liking for maverick independents but don’t much like mainland big-noters like Clive Palmer.

Are terrorists winning the war on terror?

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Global Terrorism Index Report  – “17,958 people were killed in terrorist attacks last year, that’s 61% more than the previous year.17,958 people were killed in terrorist attacks last year, that’s 61% more than the previous year. . 82% of all deaths from terrorist attacks occur in just 5 countries: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria. . Last year terrorism was dominated by four groups: the Taliban, Boko Haram, ISIL, and al Qa’ida. . More than 90% of all terrorist attacks occur in countries that have gross human rights violations. . 40 times more people are killed by homicides than terrorist attacks. Once Tolerated, Westerners Are Now Targeted By Radical Islamists  – “For more than a decade now, extremist groups scattered across the Muslim world have been targeting Westerners to such an extent that large swaths of territory are no-go zones, including many parts of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen.” With Cash And Cachet, The Islamic State Expands Its Emp

The Owl's election indicator, based on market prices, now gives Labor an 82.9 % chance of winning.

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The odds about a Labor victory in Victoria keep increasing. The Owl’s election indicator, based on market prices, now gives Labor an 82.9 % chance of winning.

ABC boss explains the Murdoch method

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So where was ABC managing director Mark Scott referring us? To “The pervasive power of Rupert Murdoch: an extract from Hack Attack by Nick Davies” where you will find: … they say that his primary interest in politicians is not political; it’s commercial. He may be a highly political animal, they say – obsessed with the details of life in the corridors of power and personally possessed of some extremely right-wing opinions – but what he most wants from politicians is favours for his business. He’ll betray his own principles, he’ll embrace politicians for whom he has very little respect, just as long as they have the power to help the company get bigger. … The man’s character, in turn, is at the heart of his approach to business. Rupert Murdoch is a man who will crush an opponent like a beetle beneath his boot, and he will do it for one simple reason – for News Corp. One of the guests who is closest to him says: “Rupert does not discriminate – he does not care about anybody more tha

Stories about dishonest banks just keep on coming

BBC News – HSBC’s private banking arm accused of tax fraud by Belgium . Authorities in Brussels have charged HSBC’s private banking arm, which is based in Switzerland, with helping wealthy Belgians to avoid taxes. Prosecutors allege that hundreds of clients – including diamond dealers in Antwerp – moved money to offshore tax havens with the help of the bank. … Prosecutor Michel Claise accused HSBC of “fraud, money laundering, criminal association and illegal exercise of the profession of financial intermediary”.

Lobbyists spending billions to help earn trillions and other news and views for the day

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Top Spenders On Capitol Hill Pay Billions, Receive Trillions  – ‘How much power should corporations wield in Washington? It’s an enduring question — and now the Sunlight Foundation has devised a new way to gauge that power. The foundation took the 200 corporations most active in Washington, analyzed the years 2007-2012 and applied several metrics: what the companies got in federal contracts and other federal support, what they spent on lobbying, how much their executives and political action committees gave in campaign contributions. Bill Allison, the Sunlight Foundation’s editorial director, says there aren’t permanent majorities governing in Congress and the executive branch — “but there really are permanent interests in Washington,” he says. With some companies, a policy of giving big to political campaigns might seem pretty obvious; at other companies, it’s less obvious. “But federal spending is a big part of their business model,” Allison says. He says the top 200 corporations ac

Moving closer to El Niño and a record high world temperature for 2014

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Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has upgraded its assessment of the likelihood of an El Niño to 70% and warmer than normal temperatures are increasingly likely to make this current calendar year the warmest in recent history. In its  ENSO Wrap-Up  of the Current state of the Pacific and Indian Oceans released on Wednesday the BOM said the Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Niño development in recent weeks. Above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed further in the past fortnight, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has generally been in excess of El Niño thresholds for the past three months. Climate models suggest current conditions will either persist or strengthen. These factors mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker Status has been upgraded from WATCH to ALERT level, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring. Not all indicators have shifted towards El Niño. Tropical cloudiness near the Date Line and trade wind strength are c

When free market principle and self interest collide – which will the Murdoch team back?

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“We’re for Sydney” the page one banner declares. To which, if today’s  Daily Telegraph  is any guide, we could add “But self interest comes first.” Hence the Tele’s big issue of the day. Newsagents might lose their monopoly right to sell lottery tickets, it told us on page one. And what a terrible thing that would be for these brave and battling small business people. NEWSAGENTS in NSW have warned they face annihilation if lottery ticket sales are opened up to big players such as Coles and Woolworths. As a condition of privatising NSW Lotteries in 2010, the then Labor government agreed to a five-year moratorium with new owners Tatts that prevented supermarkets and other big retailers from selling lotto tickets and scratchies. But the arrangement is due to end on March 31 — the week after the state election. … Lottery sales provide between 25 and 90 per cent of newsagent income and the Newsagents Association of NSW and ACT (NANA) said allowing big retailers into the market