Scotland's referendum date set and what are the chances?

The Owl is a believer in the markets being the best indicator of likely political outcomes. Hence the series of Political Indicators you will regularly find on this site giving a probability of various results occurring.
Now that the Scottish government has set March 24, 2016 as the date Scotland will become independent of the United Kingdom if a majority of Scots vote to end their 306-year-old union next year it is time for our first Scottish Independence Indicator.
2014-01-18_scotreferendum
Updated 18 January 2014

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