Wednesday, 17 July 2013

Election diary Wednesday 17 July 2013 Abbott a disloyal traitor

And on State of Origin eve too! Surely western Sydney will now realise once again that you cannot trust a Manly man.

A football based correction. I wrote in the diary yesterday as if Kevin Rudd started the bidding war for Rockhampton's football stadium. Now I learn he was merely matching a prior promise from Tony. My conclusion remains unchanged. We will see much more such sporting largesse before polling day arrives.  

A rough and ready poll of polls. I do a rough and ready "poll of polls" based on the five major pollsters and it is currently showing the slimmest of margins (0.2 percentage points) for the Coalition. I'm not sure what it's worth really but the result is the same as the far more sophisticated effort done by The Poll Bludger published on his blog at Crikey.

Here's an updated table of the year's polling that you can make readable by clicking:


The Indicator not yet as convinced. Our election indicator, which unlike the polls is not trying to measure how people would vote now but what will happen when the election is finally held, is lagging behind the pollsters. The current assessment of the probabilities:






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