Tuesday, 9 July 2013

Election diary Monday 8 July 2013 - What if the Morgan Poll is right?

The forgotten pollster. Morgan tends to be the forgotten pollster these days. Without the patronage of a major media outlet his weekly offerings have little impact on the political debate. But that some people still take notice of his findings is suggested by the unexpected surge today in support for Labor on the betting markets.

And here is what Morgan reported today:
This week’s Morgan Poll, the third since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister, shows another significant swing to the ALP. The ALP 54.5% (up 3% since last week’s multi-mode Morgan Poll of June 28-30, 2013) is now further ahead of the L-NP 45.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis.
The ALP primary vote is 41.5% (up 2%), ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 39.5% (down 1%).
Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/ Others is 10.5% (down 1%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1.5% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1.5%.
If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win comfortably according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,521 Australian electors aged 18+.
A different version of public opinion. And now for something completely different. Essential Research, a pollster that I pay particular attention to because I am prejudiced against any that show large swings from week to week has the two party vote at Labor 48% Coalition 52%.

A frenetic edge to Coalition comments. I detect a more strident tone to the rhetoric of Coalition MPs when they discuss the question of how to stop the arrival of unwanted migrants by boat from Indonesia. It suggests to me that they are still a bit rattled about how to campaign now that Labor has a new leader.

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