Avoiding El Nino?

The signs are emerging that Australia might escape the impact of an El Niño this year. The Bureau of Meteorology reports that most dynamical models it surveys suggest that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will maintain values around El Niño thresholds before returning to clearly neutral values towards the end of 2012 or early 2013. Hence there is an increased likelihood of avoiding the dry conditions El Niño's produce.