Wednesday, 14 March 2012

The political speculator's diary: A little more Santorum

The political speculator's diary: A little more Santorum: Candidate Rick Santorum continues to surprise. Wins, albeit narrow ones, in Alabama and Mississippi today keep the Republican race alive. Yet the market does not seem to really believe it and he's still only given a 6.8% chance on Intrade with Mitt Romney assessed at 85%. The whole market comes in at less than 100% which presents a rare opportunity
That looks value enough to risk another $6.80 on Santorum to go with my earlier investment of $10 at a bookies price of $27 (3.7%).
I already have $50 on Romney at $2 (50%) so my biggest risk on this event is probably someone completely new emerging from a hung convention. Hence the decision to have $1.50 on Jeb Bush at 1.5% as my outsider insurance policy.
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