Monday, 19 July 2010

Who knows about double dip but slow progress in the US


The speculation goes on in the United States about whether or not the country is in for a double dip recession but there seems to be growing agreement that slow economic growth means it is going to take quite a long time before the unemployment level returns to where it was before the international financial crisis. This graph from a paper published by Washington’s Brookings Institute shows the sad nature of current forecasts.
18-07-2010 usjobsgap
If future job growth continues at a rate of roughly 208,000 jobs per month, the average monthly job creation for the best year for job creation in the 2000s, it would take 136 months (more than 11 years) to return to employment levels from before the Great Recession. In a more optimistic scenario, with 321,000 jobs created per month, the average monthly job creation for the best year in the 1990s, it would take over 57 months (almost five years).
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