The June quarter producer price index figures out from the Australian Bureau of Statistics this morning suggest that the government will not have to worry about a rise in official interest rates disrupting its election campaign. The figures, while not a direct guide to what the official consumer price index to be released later in the week will show, were much lower than the dreaded economists had been predicting.
A poll by Reuters of market economists had predicted a rise for the quarter of 0.8% to give a gain on a year earlier of 1.5%. This morning’s figures came in at 0.3% and 1/0% respectively. There was certainly no sign there that inflation in Australia is about to escalate.
The Crikey Interest Rate Indicator continues to have the Reserve Bank leaving official rates unchanged as the most likely result of its August meeting.