A little bit more for the opinion polls freaks to consider following on my little piece yesterday. I have done a little summary comparing the performance of Newspolls from those 10 out (about 3 months) from the actual poll right up until the last before the election. Judge for yourself but I find them no help at all in predicting what happens.
Perhaps we can conclude that the most consistent feature is that the vote for minor parties is understated throughout the period but I am loathe to make much of it because we are only looking at a sample of what happened in the course of eight elections. That’s too small a sample to be definite about anything.
Conspiracy theorists might want to see something in the Labor vote being higher in the polls than the actual vote received but I very much doubt that is so.
For anyone wanting to fiddle around with the date for themselves I will post it this evening to my blog. I hope you have fun.