Monday, 21 June 2010

The indicator was not moved

The Crikey federal election indicator was left unmoved by the latest round of opinion poll releases — Morgan on Friday, Newspoll and Essential this morning — and the by-election for the NSW state seat of Penrith. Labor is still rated as a 63% chance of retaining office.

21-06-2010 crikeyelectionindicators
For the NSW state election due next year the probability of a coalition victory has increased slightly.
One new feature for those liking a bet on political outcomes is that Centrebet now has Labor and coalition federally equal chances of victory when 2½ seats are taken off Labor and 2½ added to the Liberals. That bookie would seem to be assuming that the best guess of the eventual result is a two-party preferred vote of Labor 50.2% to 49.8% for the coalition.
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