Friday, 12 March 2010

Labor has a lot of insulation

In Australia we have four regular pollsters - Newspoll appears fortnightly in The Australian, AC Nielsen monthly in the Sydney Morning Herald and the Melbourne Age, the Morgan Poll which has no major media home has a fortnightly version based on face-to-face interviews and weekly phone poll reports while the Essential Report, which Crikey seems to have adopted, gives weekly updates from its internet sample.All of them seem to be serious measurers of public opinion but for some reason I don't quite understand Newspoll is the one that commentators take most seriously. Goodness knows why. It must be a reflection of the standing of the national daily, The Australian, which publishes it.
Today's Morgan Poll gives quite a different version of Australian voting intentions to Newspoll. In early March, says Morgan,  support for the ALP is 55.5% (down 1%) maintaining a strong two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (44.5%, up 1%). At the end of February Newspoll had the two-party preferred vote at ALP 52% to 48% for the Coalition. According to Essential Report's latest reading it is 54% ALP to 46% Coalition with AC Nielsen putting at 53% to 47% for the Coalition.
It is hard to see much joy in that lot or results for the Coalition. 
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