Friday, 4 December 2009

First straw in the wind will please Liberals

The Morgan poll results out this afternoon will give Liberals hope that their tumultuous week in Canberra might not prove as disastrous as most commentators are predicing. A special telephone Morgan Poll, conducted over the last two nights (December 2/3, 2009) shows the L-NP making gains after Tony Abbott’s election as the new Liberal Leader on Tuesday. Primary support for the L-NP (43%) is ahead of the ALP (41%) for the first time since the 2007 Federal Election.

Looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens was 10.5% (up 2.5%), Family First, up 0.5% to 1.5% and Independents/ Others 4% (down 3%).

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP (53%) retains an edge over the L-NP (47%) — figures barely changed from the last telephone Morgan Poll conducted on November 11/12, 2009 which showed the ALP (52%) ahead of the L-NP (48%).

Morgan does sound a cautionary note explaining that telephone polls have typically been biased towards the L-NP and more ‘responsive’ to current events. Still, when you have belted so badly in the polls for so long Liberals can be forgiven for hoping that this time things will be different.
Perhaps another encouraging sign for the Coalition is that when Malcolm Turnbull took over from Brendan Nelson back in September 2008 the Labor poll figures went up rather than down.

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