Wednesday, 25 November 2009

The punters are yawning

So you think the affairs of South Australian Premier Mike Rann are of political significance? Then hop straight on the phone to your local bookie and back the Liberals for next year’s election because the price about Labor has hardly changed at all. The money says the Rann-led government is still a good thing to win.
The Crikey Election Indicator, which looks at the markets on these things and takes out any profit margins to give a probability to 100%, still has Labor as an 80% chance to 20% for the Liberals.
That’s about the same chances as given to Labor and the coalition federally although after the Liberal shenanigans in Canberra this week Labor will probably end up as an even greater chance of winning.
In New South Wales, Labor continues to languish on the indicator despite the shows of strength by Premier Nathan Rees and the support now being given to him by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.
Only in Tasmania does the Crikey Indicator suggest that there will be a close contest. Despite the appallingly low vote being shown by Labor in the opinion polls, the Liberals do not look strong enough to get a majority in their own right. The slight lead held by Labor on the indicator suggests that a minority government supported by the Greens is the most likely outcome in the island state in March.
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