Thursday, 12 November 2009

Pick the Newspoll


The last published Newspoll figures on voting intention surprised a few people … apparently the major parties are level pegging. Newspoll will give us the state of the parties again next week (we assume) and the new numbers will be very interesting. In the lead-up to the 2007 elections we at Crikey played a little guessing game on polling and in these apparently volatile times it seems appropriate to do so again.
Take a punt: enter your best guesses of the primary vote that the next Newspoll will show for the major parties and others along with your estimate of the two-party preferred position and the approval ratings for the Prime Minister and the Opposition leader.
We will reward the winner with a set of magnificent news season’s First Dog on the Moon tea towels with the winner being the person closest to correct across all categories. In the event of a tie, the first correct entry gets the goodies.
The scoring system is simple. If the Newspoll number is, say, 52 and you predict 52 you score 0; if 53 you get -1, for a 54 -2 etc. When we add up the scores for all the answers the person closest to zero wins.
You will find the entry form here. Good tipping.
The form guide. Figures for the last three starts by Newspoll are given below with the most recent outing given first.

PRIMARY VOTE
Labor  — 41, 48, 47
Liberal  — 36, 30, 32
National  — 5, 4, 4
Greens  — 10, 10, 10
Others - 8, 7, 7

TWO PARTY PREFERRED
Labor  — 52, 59, 58
Coalition  — 48, 41, 42

APPROVAL RATING
Rudd  — 59, 63, 67
Turnbull  — 32, 32, 33
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