Monday, 30 November 2009

Hockey favourite but still backable

The bookmakers on Friday had Joe Hockey paying $1.50 for a $1 to be leader of the Liberal Party when the next federal election is held. At midday today he was $1.35 at Centrebet, which would be stealing money if you believed the almost unanimous predictions by the press gallery pundits that Malcolm Turnbull will be ousted at tomorrow’s party meeting.
Clearly some people still have their doubts about what will happen and I am in that category. I cannot believe that an ambitious man such as Joe Hockey would offer himself up for sacrifice to appease people whose views he does not agree with. Still, sensible people have done silly things in the past. Just look at Turnbull. He was stupid enough to challenge Brendan Nelson for the job in the first place.
While the bookmakers are offering prices about other candidates as well, if there is a party room ballot tomorrow there will only be three contenders. Taking out the profit margin provides the followingCrikey Liberal Leader Election Indicator:

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