Predicting a rate rise


I noticed that the normally measured and responsible Ross Gittins in the Sydney Morning Herald reckoned there was a high chance the Reserve Bank board will decide to raise the official interest rate at its meeting tomorrow. Failing that, he wrote, it will move at the following meeting on Melbourne Cup Day. That was enough of a tip to encourage me to have a little play on the prediction markets backing a quarter of a percent rise whereas no change is still by far the most favoured outcome:

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