Tuesday, 30 June 2009

Give thanks to NSW

The Liberal Party should surely be giving thanks to New South Wales for that appears to be the only state where there is a likelihood of putting a further dent in the Labor Party's national dominance of governments. After the surprise of its narrow win in Western Australia which ended Labor's monopoly on state and territory power, and a narrow loss in the Northern Territory, there was much enthusiasm and hope among Liberals that the electoral pendulum really was starting to swing in their direction.
The actual election results since then in Queensland and the ACT and opinion polls elsewhere suggest that this is a rather strange pendulum. While in NSW the Coalition has a handy lead, the Newspoll figures for Victoria out this morning show that the Government of John Brumby is still doing remarkably well. A poll last week in The Advertiser contained no evidence of a swing against Labor in that state either.
It would seem to me, incidentally, to be something of an anomaly that the market has Labor and the Coalition so close together on the national Indicator. If you believed the latest trio of opinion polls you would have Kevin Rudd and his team very much shorter than 62%. It is only the need to tie up the dollars for over a year before there is a result that is stopping me from backing my opinion but I must say I am tempted.
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