Thursday, 20 November 2008

Will Barack Obama prove more popular than George Bush?

It might he hard to remember, but George W. Bush was once a popular president. After his first month as President of the United States on 1 March 2001, he had an approval rating as measured by the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll of 57.0%.
Barack Obama will soon have his presidential popularity out to the test and the Crikey Political Indicator, based on prediction markets from around the world, gives him a 79% chance of having a higher initial rating as judged by the Real Clear Politics average job approval figure on 1 March 2009 than the man he will replace did eight years earlier.
As an indication of how the mighty can fall, have a look at the Gallup poll's quarterly ratings from 2001 until now.
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