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Latham's Second Preference Strategy

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Steam rolling Peter Garrett in to the endorsement for a safe seat has certainly improved Mark Latham's chances of becoming Prime Minister and it is not because more people are likely to vote one for Labor. Winning Federal elections these days is not just about maximising the vote of your own party. It's those second preferences that count and, with the Greens likely to be the largest third party, getting their 2's next to a Labor name will be all important. Back in 1975 was the last time that a government secured a majority of votes in its own right and before that it was only Robert Menzies in 1949 and 1951 who gained more than 50%. At the other 19 elections since 1949, votes for minor parties and independents were the determining factors. The importance of those second preferences has increased dramatically as the combined Labor and Liberal/National share of the vote has declined from the high 90% of the early 1950ies to the less than 81% gained in 2001. Fo