A couple of new polls this morning with predictions on what will happen on Thursday when they vote in the UK to elect members to the European Parliament.
The ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday had UKIP clearly doing best and gave an explanation as to why its UKIP figure was higher than that of some other pollsters.
One of those other was a YouGov/Sun poll that had topline figures of CON 22%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 25%, GRN 10%. Labour are just ahead of UKIP in first place but the Polling Report website commented:
A lot of this apparent difference is down to how they approach turnout – YouGov’s topline figures are based on all respondents, if they took only those certain to vote UKIP would be ahead. ComRes’s figures include only those 10/10 certain to vote, if they included those who say they are 5/10 or more likely to vote UKIP’s lead over Labour would be a far more modest 2 points.
The betting markets are pointing towards UKIP polling the most votes with the politicalowl’s indicator assessing the chances this way:
You will find my investments on the event at my political speculator’s site: