Friday, 23 May 2014

A modest improvement in UKIP's chances in the European parliamentary election

The strong showing by UKIP in the UK’s local government elections has resulted in the markets making a five percentage point improvement in the assessed probability of that party gaining most votes in the elections of members to the European Parliament. Those votes for MEPs were caste on the same day as those for local governments but will not be counted until Sunday when elections in all European countries are concluded.
At this point of proceedings I am happy with my recommendations:
EUROPEAN ELECTION
  • $460 on Labour at $2.20 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election
  • $450 on UKIP at $2.25 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election.
UKIP and Labour are both winners.
Full details of my political betting are at my political speculator’s diary blog.
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