Federal election 2010

14 August 2010 A listing of probabilities of victory by party for all House of Representative seats. Small Labor losses the best guess

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Is Scott Morrison getting ahead of Malcolm Turnbull in the GST debate?

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Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra Scott Morrison has become a true believer in the cause of raising the GST, determined to drive a major switch in the tax mix. The big question is whether Malcolm Turnbull will end up in the same place as his treasurer. Turnbull is keeping his options open. “Changes to the GST are certainly part of the tax debate and certainly being actively considered by the government,” he said on Friday. If Turnbull agrees with Morrison, all will be well and good between them. On the other hand if Turnbull eventually opts for caution and doesn’t walk down the GST road, or in the shorter term feels Morrison is getting ahead of the game, that would be awkward for the gung-ho minister, who would the need to manage his retreat. Morrison wants a high profile and he seeks the limelight. But that carries risks. There is always that salutary tale from Labor days. Paul Keating was passionate about introducing a broad-based consumption tax. Bob Hawke let ...
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Grattan on Friday: Now Malcolm Turnbull is the sniper at the window

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Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra There’s a nice story about Arthur Fadden - the Country Party leader who became PM in the 1941 hung parliament amid conservative leadership turmoil - deciding not to move into the Lodge after a colleague told him he’d “scarcely have enough time to wear a track from the backdoor to the shithouse before you’ll be out”. The warning was prophetic: Fadden was dispatched in little over a month, replaced in a House of Representatives vote by Labor’s John Curtin. Scott Morrison, ensconced in Kirribilli, has already had a longer spell than Fadden, and his government appears safe in parliament, despite losing its majority. Regardless of these differences, Morrison’s likely trajectory seems as clear as that of “Artie” all those years ago. The widespread feeling that the Morrison government is doomed will only be reinforced by this week’s outbreak of hostilities between the former and current prime ministers. At one level, it’s hard to believe we’r...
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Malcolm Turnbull's government has finally defied fiction

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Grattan on Friday: With the eligibility of the Nationals’ leadership under question, Malcolm Turnbull has had a nightmarish week. Mick Tsikas/AAP Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra In a week belonging more appropriately to Shaun Micallef comedy than parliamentary reality, it’s arguable Pauline Hanson’s burqa stunt wasn’t the most extraordinary thing that happened in Canberra. Hanson has extreme beliefs and therefore it mightn’t be so surprising – though it is appalling – that she’s willing to use the parliament as a stage for extremely bad behaviour. In donning the burqa purchased on eBay and entering the Senate chamber, she was as attention-seeking as the streaker who races naked across the football ground, though her motive was darker. Let’s call out her action, but not play into her cynical pursuit of mega publicity. Entirely beyond imagination was the week being bookended by the Nationals leader, Barnaby Joyce , and his deputy, senato...
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