Saturday, 14 August 2010

Small Labor losses the best guess

Goodness knows what to say about the opinion polls. In the last two days we have had Morgan putting Labor's two party preferred vote share at 57.5% and apparently AC Nielsen in the morning has them on 53%. I just don't believe that public opinion moves in as dramatic a fashion as these and the other pollsters are telling us.
I'll stick with the market as providing the best guide and at midnight it suggested Labor was at about 52.3% nationally. Making a few adjustments to suggest that Labor is doing worse than that in Queensland and NSW and better in Victoria and South Australia the best guess by electorate follows:
 and 
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