Saturday, 24 July 2010

Harsh words best delivered softly - Labor the daily winner

I admit to having difficulty coming to grips with declaring that Labor had a winning Friday on the campaign trail yesterday  when the keynote speech of the Prime Minister was full of such fatuous and meaningless spin. Yet give the day to Labor we must because most people will not be judging Julia Gillard on what she actually said but the way she said it. That's the sad truth of politics in the television age and on the box she managed to give the impression of being concerned with the future of the warming planet without offering anything other than more talks about what to do to stop global warming.
Then there was the composure Ms Gillard showed in the face of hostile heckling from students as she plowed on delivering her nothingness. As the security men hauled the demonstrator away she did not miss a beat and will get merit marks for being so unflappable.
Meanwhile on the other side of the continent, Tony Abbott in Perth was trying again to stir up antagonism towards the Labor Government for not being macho enough in dealing with uninvited people arriving near our northern coast on boats. The problem with this Abbott approach is not the words, it would appear, but the way he delivers them. If the succession of opinion polls showing Labor comfortably in front tell anything meaningful it is that women, by a quite significant margin, intend to vote for the leader of their own sex rather than the man and I expect one reason for that is Tony Abbott raising his voice too often. Harsh words do best when delivered softly.
The market has drawn the same conclusion from Week One as I have. When the election was called last Saturday the Election Indicator based on the market prices of each side winning had Labor as a 75% chance. This morning the probability of a Labor victory had risen to 79%.
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