Wednesday, 2 December 2009

Betting on a date


Only some very thin early markets up so far on when the next federal election will be but converting them to 100% probabilities gives the following:
  • Jan-10 - 3%
  • Feb-10 - 6%
  • Mar-10 - 10%
  • Apr-10  - 5%
  • Aug-10 - 10%
  • Sep-10 - 11%
  • Oct-10 - 23%
  • Nov-10 - 18%
  • Dec-10 - 2%
  • Any Other Month 14%
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