Betting on a date
Only some very thin early markets up so far on when the next federal election will be but converting them to 100% probabilities gives the following:
- Jan-10 - 3%
- Feb-10 - 6%
- Mar-10 - 10%
- Apr-10 - 5%
- Aug-10 - 10%
- Sep-10 - 11%
- Oct-10 - 23%
- Nov-10 - 18%
- Dec-10 - 2%
- Any Other Month 14%
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